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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–7 on winners
spread MAE 6.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+11.8 | 129.8 | 87% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Hofstra
|
+4.2 | 128.1 | 72% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+5.3 | 135.5 | 73% | 68–86 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Gonzaga
|
+20.6 | 145.5 | 89% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Robert Morris
|
+3.3 | 144.4 | 70% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Eastern Washington
|
+1.4 | 154.1 | 61% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+3.4 | 144.7 | 65% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Arizona State
|
-2.2 | 152.2 | 41% | 79–83 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+5.7 | 141.8 | 78% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Stanford
|
+3.6 | 138.7 | 68% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Utah
@
Cincinnati
|
+9.0 | 141.0 | 82% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
SMU
|
+4.5 | 153.4 | 71% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Oregon
|
+2.4 | 137.3 | 62% | 70–60 | ✗ |
UMass Lowell
@
UMBC
|
+10.6 | 143.5 | 85% | 69–91 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Florida International
|
+1.2 | 147.3 | 55% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Long Island University
|
+5.7 | 135.0 | 75% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
BYU
|
+9.9 | 159.2 | 82% | 91–105 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Vermont
|
+10.8 | 133.6 | 87% | 54–63 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Virginia Tech
|
+1.8 | 146.8 | 60% | 95–89 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Hofstra
|
+5.2 | 134.0 | 73% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+6.3 | 133.3 | 75% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Wright State
|
+4.1 | 149.3 | 65% | 63–66 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Northwestern
|
+6.9 | 140.8 | 76% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.