Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 8.0 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNLV @ Fresno State -7.7 144.3 20% 52–51 ✓
Belmont @ Southern Illinois +1.1 155.0 54% 73–68 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +3.1 145.6 65% 73–75 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +15.6 134.6 90% 60–85 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +7.6 140.0 80% 81–70 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +6.8 142.3 78% 71–78 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -3.8 153.4 28% 85–82 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -8.9 139.0 21% 82–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +5.7 155.8 71% 79–65 ✗
Kentucky @ Texas +0.3 159.3 49% 78–82 ✓
TCU @ Arizona State +5.0 137.0 69% 74–70 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +11.7 145.0 86% 57–84 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana State +3.1 139.3 67% 69–74 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana -4.2 141.3 32% 68–79 ✗
Troy @ Arkansas State +5.8 139.4 71% 71–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.7 141.2 61% 69–81 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +9.1 163.8 84% 85–89 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State -5.4 131.1 31% 64–67 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas +7.3 155.5 80% 84–95 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +2.7 148.2 65% 87–77 ✗
South Carolina @ Florida +16.8 141.9 90% 67–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -6.5 139.2 24% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +5.4 149.2 71% 65–80 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +11.2 147.2 86% 58–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +11.1 143.0 87% 83–86 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -1.8 134.5 43% 76–69 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +6.3 136.2 74% 48–76 ✓
Kansas @ Utah -4.6 143.9 30% 67–74 ✗
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.6 129.1 62% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -4.2 141.9 27% 78–89 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +21.5 156.8 91% 55–107 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -14.2 144.3 14% 84–61 ✓
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +12.7 136.6 87% 56–77 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -5.7 137.7 25% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State -6.0 146.5 27% 79–84 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple -0.5 161.2 48% 83–81 ✓
Siena @ Sacred Heart +0.7 145.7 53% 80–73 ✗
Michigan @ Ohio State +2.7 150.2 64% 86–83 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -6.7 137.4 23% 73–66 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +6.8 132.7 76% 61–59 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +3.7 140.4 69% 68–60 ✗
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -5.3 163.4 30% 94–91 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +6.9 144.7 78% 74–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -3.1 145.8 36% 80–67 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +3.1 122.5 62% 61–60 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +3.1 126.2 61% 65–66 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +6.9 138.4 77% 73–79 ✓
Missouri State @ UIC +7.1 143.9 79% 58–63 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +2.0 142.2 56% 68–64 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +9.3 132.9 83% 83–93 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.1 146.9 25% 68–79 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +7.7 142.9 79% 70–92 ✓
South Florida @ UAB +8.1 155.8 80% 78–85 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +6.2 155.3 74% 79–82 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland +11.8 161.4 87% 75–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.