You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–41 on winners spread MAE 7.9 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago +2.1 138.5 61% 69–78 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -4.9 148.8 33% 73–75 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +17.5 150.5 91% 71–72 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -1.1 139.5 44% 56–70 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -4.0 141.6 31% 73–60 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +5.3 142.4 75% 75–76 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +4.8 130.7 71% 52–65 ✓
Marist @ Siena +1.4 130.9 57% 65–64 ✗
Merrimack @ Manhattan -0.1 137.6 50% 75–79 ✗
Rider @ Iona +4.1 135.9 67% 74–71 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart +0.2 152.3 52% 99–90 ✗
UCLA @ Indiana -1.6 139.5 41% 72–68 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +5.6 149.3 73% 80–88 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -3.1 138.4 39% 73–58 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +7.4 137.2 78% 61–69 ✓
Clemson @ Florida State -3.2 143.3 36% 72–46 ✓
Rice @ Tulane +4.2 136.0 67% 78–81 ✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh +14.1 154.2 88% 65–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts -0.5 136.6 46% 73–59 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +10.8 147.0 84% 68–85 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +1.9 137.4 63% 58–50 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +6.5 129.4 76% 57–58 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +11.9 141.1 87% 76–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +5.4 148.9 71% 94–84 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -1.2 156.4 44% 76–85 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette -1.1 138.8 44% 75–69 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -0.3 134.3 51% 91–93 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +4.7 147.6 68% 75–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +11.7 133.9 86% 67–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -6.8 149.3 25% 79–80 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant +10.5 160.4 86% 79–81 ✓
Army @ Navy +1.3 143.8 56% 54–61 ✓
Houston @ Arizona +0.4 137.2 54% 62–58 ✗
High Point @ Winthrop -1.6 158.3 42% 88–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Baylor +5.8 137.1 73% 71–74 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech +0.7 133.9 49% 73–70 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +8.5 144.4 81% 62–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +3.4 138.1 65% 60–72 ✓
Washington @ Penn State +6.1 146.9 73% 75–73 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +1.0 134.0 57% 58–62 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -2.7 133.6 33% 75–71 ✓
Vermont @ Maine +5.0 126.3 69% 65–61 ✗
Georgetown @ Butler +5.2 139.1 70% 86–97 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -8.6 130.1 20% 74–73 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -2.4 137.6 41% 65–70 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +2.9 152.1 68% 69–76 ✓
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T -6.0 150.4 25% 69–59 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary +1.9 145.8 58% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +8.5 135.8 81% 54–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Hampton +1.2 131.9 54% 49–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +6.2 143.2 74% 79–92 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota +4.6 153.7 69% 77–88 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +11.8 147.8 86% 84–89 ✓
Samford @ Wofford +0.5 146.9 52% 76–68 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +10.3 145.6 86% 83–89 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +0.6 148.7 51% 63–59 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +9.6 137.7 83% 76–77 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -13.1 130.5 14% 68–69 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -6.3 147.2 24% 70–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -0.4 133.5 45% 67–72 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -9.4 148.9 19% 93–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -4.6 155.3 26% 96–87 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +1.7 146.6 55% 63–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -2.6 142.6 37% 74–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -3.9 148.9 31% 82–75 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +2.4 135.9 61% 78–81 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M -5.8 132.6 24% 65–55 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia +0.5 144.1 52% 87–74 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill +4.1 132.3 65% 73–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +5.5 139.9 74% 73–76 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -2.2 154.8 41% 73–80 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +0.7 145.9 52% 76–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +10.2 142.4 86% 60–71 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +0.8 174.0 54% 94–85 ✗
Stanford @ Duke +17.6 142.5 91% 70–106 ✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +10.4 139.8 83% 70–81 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte -1.3 144.4 43% 75–59 ✓
California @ Georgia Tech +3.7 144.6 69% 88–90 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +8.0 149.0 80% 71–86 ✓
George Washington @ Davidson +3.0 136.6 65% 74–67 ✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -14.2 139.8 13% 75–63 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State +3.3 152.9 65% 69–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +9.9 134.6 83% 53–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +5.0 134.7 70% 51–72 ✓
Minnesota @ USC +7.3 141.8 77% 69–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State -4.2 134.2 29% 65–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +4.9 146.2 70% 75–78 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +6.0 139.6 75% 65–70 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +7.9 140.7 76% 54–91 ✓
Campbell @ Delaware -1.0 145.5 46% 96–91 ✓
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky +5.4 154.8 74% 80–86 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +1.8 136.3 56% 70–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +8.7 152.1 82% 72–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State +1.7 130.8 57% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +12.3 142.7 87% 59–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.5 141.6 72% 55–69 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +2.3 139.8 63% 81–84 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +4.0 148.3 67% 80–71 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +4.3 141.8 70% 72–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -1.9 134.1 39% 72–68 ✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +11.1 154.2 86% 62–90 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +7.4 142.2 78% 69–83 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -0.7 155.9 47% 49–88 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.1 147.8 48% 71–82 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +9.7 141.8 83% 68–82 ✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay +11.2 146.1 86% 63–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling -0.3 132.7 50% 67–60 ✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.8 133.5 66% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.8 141.7 66% 52–76 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -4.2 159.2 29% 83–84 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +5.1 149.4 74% 81–71 ✗
Presbyterian @ Longwood +6.8 144.7 76% 77–68 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa +0.1 143.4 50% 76–80 ✓
North Carolina @ Syracuse -4.9 157.7 30% 88–82 ✓
Wake Forest @ SMU +8.1 142.4 77% 77–66 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +0.1 146.5 50% 66–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern +11.8 147.8 88% 60–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M -0.4 143.4 50% 71–76 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Brown +6.8 142.2 77% 72–82 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +1.4 147.2 56% 75–87 ✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans -14.1 140.8 13% 78–64 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -1.3 140.7 45% 62–75 ✗
LSU @ Oklahoma +7.3 147.4 75% 82–79 ✗
Pacific @ Oregon State +15.0 141.4 87% 65–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -9.8 149.3 17% 75–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +0.8 148.4 47% 81–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.