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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.9
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.5 | 150.2 | 52% | 79–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 132.6 | 63% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 128.6 | 47% | 62–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 149.3 | 78% | 71–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 140.3 | 52% | 75–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 129.7 | 32% | 69–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 138.1 | 69% | 59–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 148.8 | 62% | 78–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 141.1 | 68% | 54–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 151.9 | 56% | 77–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 148.6 | 54% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.1 | 65% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 163.4 | 70% | 84–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 126.4 | 75% | 51–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 141.8 | 76% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 166.7 | 61% | 96–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 129.8 | 79% | 59–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 138.9 | 63% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 141.3 | 77% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 158.0 | 81% | 57–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 145.3 | 82% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 128.2 | 69% | 62–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 142.5 | 47% | 64–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 137.7 | 48% | 86–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 138.7 | 46% | 68–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 136.8 | 79% | 72–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 144.7 | 39% | 76–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 164.3 | 81% | 90–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 130.9 | 61% | 65–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 152.6 | 82% | 55–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 141.7 | 58% | 81–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 143.6 | 61% | 63–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 153.2 | 55% | 65–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 149.3 | 82% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 134.7 | 73% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 165.5 | 74% | 81–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 128.5 | 84% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 144.9 | 52% | 73–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.5 | 143.3 | 44% | 64–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.