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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–10 on winners
spread MAE 5.9
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.3 | 138.9 | 65% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 140.0 | 87% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 136.5 | 61% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 155.1 | 47% | 97–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 134.2 | 76% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 140.9 | 84% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 143.2 | 68% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 129.6 | 85% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 146.6 | 60% | 81–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 151.8 | 80% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 151.1 | 77% | 53–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 148.2 | 59% | 91–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 145.9 | 81% | 75–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 148.7 | 34% | 86–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 150.2 | 81% | 67–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 130.8 | 64% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 144.6 | 87% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 146.6 | 82% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 141.7 | 61% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 150.6 | 41% | 92–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 139.1 | 63% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 148.6 | 55% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 159.2 | 41% | 85–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 135.9 | 50% | 84–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 139.3 | 65% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 140.3 | 71% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 144.3 | 43% | 89–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 146.6 | 30% | 68–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 148.4 | 84% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 144.9 | 80% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 128.6 | 87% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 141.2 | 65% | 94–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 147.4 | 77% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 143.6 | 77% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 132.6 | 48% | 62–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 154.3 | 60% | 91–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.1 | 144.2 | 41% | 65–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 165.3 | 78% | 94–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 140.5 | 82% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 133.3 | 47% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 142.0 | 66% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 139.2 | 80% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 142.7 | 72% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 143.5 | 82% | 81–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 142.1 | 81% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 163.0 | 56% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.