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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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10–2 on winners spread MAE 8.8 56 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Norfolk State @ William & Mary	—	—	—	73–84	—
SIU Edwardsville @ Indiana State	—	—	—	77–72	—
Old Dominion @ Radford	—	—	—	75–87	—
Drexel @ Temple	—	—	—	61–69	—
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ South Florida	—	—	—	69–85	—
Fairfield @ New Hampshire	+3.5	137.6	60%	62–56	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Purdue Fort Wayne	—	—	—	69–91	—
West Georgia @ Tennessee Tech	—	—	—	73–76	—
Loyola Maryland @ NJIT	—	—	—	68–50	—
Lehigh @ Columbia	—	—	—	75–76	—
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette	+3.4	140.0	74%	63–65	✓
Monmouth @ Northern Illinois	—	—	—	66–79	—
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Miami (OH)	+8.1	145.8	86%	70–88	✓
American University @ Siena	—	—	—	66–74	—
North Carolina Central @ High Point	+13.9	143.6	87%	60–76	✓
North Carolina A&T @ George Washington	—	—	—	80–85	—
Binghamton @ Fordham	+8.0	140.6	82%	63–78	✓
Tarleton State @ Florida State	+16.1	137.6	90%	52–72	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UCF	—	—	—	94–100	—
Saint Francis @ Penn State	—	—	—	62–92	—
UIC @ Northwestern	—	—	—	74–83	—
Towson @ South Carolina	—	—	—	54–80	—
North Florida @ Georgia	+4.3	158.3	71%	77–90	✓
Colgate @ Syracuse	—	—	—	72–74	—
Rider @ Navy	+2.8	139.2	59%	90–79	✗
Delaware @ Iona	—	—	—	64–58	—
Eastern Kentucky @ Clemson	—	—	—	62–75	—
Texas Southern @ Georgia Tech	+9.2	150.1	88%	62–81	✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State	—	—	—	59–80	—
Sam Houston @ Baylor	+4.8	147.0	62%	67–104	✓
South Alabama @ Ole Miss	—	—	—	54–64	—
Little Rock @ Arkansas State	—	—	—	63–80	—
Cleveland State @ Valparaiso	—	—	—	75–67	—
UL Monroe @ Rice	—	—	—	50–66	—
Ohio @ Illinois State	—	—	—	75–85	—
UTSA @ Bradley	—	—	—	72–85	—
Prairie View A&M @ Incarnate Word	—	—	—	81–84	—
Chicago State @ Texas	—	—	—	58–105	—
Belmont @ Lipscomb	—	—	—	80–79	—
Texas State @ TCU	—	—	—	71–76	—
Jackson State @ Xavier	—	—	—	57–94	—
Duke @ Kentucky	+1.3	159.9	63%	72–77	✓
Denver @ Colorado State	—	—	—	65–74	—
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico	—	—	—	81–100	—
South Dakota @ Iowa	+15.1	161.2	89%	77–96	✓
Queens University @ Utah	—	—	—	65–96	—
UC Riverside @ California Baptist	—	—	—	70–69	—
Akron @ Saint Mary's	—	—	—	68–87	—
Sacramento State @ UC San Diego	—	—	—	54–64	—
Portland State @ San Diego	—	—	—	85–76	—
Northern Arizona @ Stanford	—	—	—	64–90	—
Portland @ Oregon	—	—	—	70–80	—
UAlbany @ Dartmouth	—	—	—	87–73	—
Louisiana Tech @ Massachusetts	—	—	—	76–66	—
Wagner @ St. John's	—	—	—	45–66	—
Southern Indiana @ Bellarmine	—	—	—	71–69	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.