Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–15 on winners spread MAE 11.6 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland Eastern Shore @ UConn +34.6 151.0 100% 45–99 ✓
San Diego State @ Houston +12.3 123.1 87% 73–70 ✗
Air Force @ Wright State +11.8 133.9 86% 57–70 ✓
Marist @ Lehigh +1.7 149.8 56% 69–74 ✓
Oakland @ Toledo +14.6 143.0 91% 85–52 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Eastern Michigan +7.3 133.0 75% 98–89 ✗
Arkansas State @ Rice -4.7 136.7 34% 67–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ Georgia +13.9 146.6 90% 56–102 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Pacific +4.9 135.3 67% 55–64 ✓
Kent State @ Kennesaw State -1.3 133.6 45% 67–60 ✓
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +6.0 137.8 71% 82–90 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Omaha +9.4 146.3 80% 71–55 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Sacramento State +15.5 124.1 92% 66–60 ✗
Utah Tech @ Portland State +7.9 159.4 76% 68–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ Alabama A&M -9.9 150.6 18% 82–44 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Southern Utah +4.9 147.2 67% 64–74 ✓
Kansas City @ Southeast Missouri State +6.4 136.4 72% 59–80 ✓
Oregon @ Alabama +5.5 170.5 69% 83–81 ✗
UC Davis @ Oregon State +15.4 135.4 92% 57–90 ✓
Cal Poly @ Stanford +10.9 157.7 84% 97–90 ✗
UC Irvine @ Towson -14.1 126.7 10% 67–60 ✓
Long Island University @ Niagara +0.6 150.2 52% 52–60 ✓
Maine @ Navy -11.2 148.4 15% 71–66 ✓
NJIT @ Massachusetts +17.7 138.6 95% 68–80 ✓
Alcorn State @ Maryland +38.3 134.3 100% 58–96 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stony Brook -11.5 139.7 15% 77–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Central Connecticut +6.0 149.1 71% 67–69 ✓
Radford @ Saint Francis +0.5 141.7 52% 79–70 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fairfield +8.3 149.6 78% 74–78 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Tennessee State +1.5 161.5 55% 92–74 ✗
New Hampshire @ Fordham +15.5 138.1 92% 61–83 ✓
Rice @ Iona -9.9 132.5 18% 70–66 ✓
Buffalo @ Penn State +32.6 166.5 100% 64–87 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Kansas State +25.9 158.8 99% 73–120 ✓
Binghamton @ Lafayette +12.0 126.4 86% 82–81 ✗
Elon @ Pennsylvania -11.6 141.8 14% 68–53 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Troy +4.4 143.6 66% 74–84 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Minnesota +9.2 121.1 80% 62–79 ✓
Missouri State @ Oral Roberts -2.4 160.3 41% 72–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +2.1 164.3 57% 76–69 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Stonehill +1.7 129.6 56% 74–88 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Boston University +6.8 140.6 73% 73–65 ✗
California Baptist @ UCF +10.3 161.7 83% 59–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Wofford -0.4 150.4 49% 54–74 ✗
North Florida @ Nebraska +10.5 157.0 83% 72–103 ✓
South Carolina State @ Xavier +16.6 140.3 93% 68–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ Hofstra -8.2 139.2 23% 66–68 ✗
Denver @ Portland +3.3 142.0 62% 90–101 ✓
Texas State @ Texas Southern -0.8 144.1 47% 72–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.