Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 10.6 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford +2.6 141.1 54% 64–88 ✓
Morehead State @ Marshall +12.3 140.0 86% 77–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Campbell +4.9 129.7 62% 58–57 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +6.5 151.6 77% 97–99 ✓
Coppin State @ Wagner +10.8 121.3 82% 52–65 ✓
Furman @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.2 126.5 45% 76–73 ✗
Bellarmine @ Western Carolina +2.1 143.8 53% 74–86 ✓
Monmouth @ Lehigh +4.4 145.9 68% 63–90 ✓
Cornell @ Colgate +2.9 146.0 59% 84–57 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Bucknell -5.2 138.7 32% 64–47 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +4.4 137.7 69% 73–69 ✗
George Washington @ American University -3.3 142.7 36% 71–81 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham +10.0 150.5 83% 75–84 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +5.6 138.7 69% 72–58 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ North Alabama +5.4 151.2 74% 59–82 ✓
Rider @ Fairfield -0.8 131.2 54% 75–78 ✗
Georgia Southern @ VCU +15.4 143.0 86% 54–89 ✓
Alabama @ North Carolina +0.6 175.2 47% 94–79 ✗
Virginia @ Florida +19.2 134.1 88% 69–87 ✓
Alcorn State @ Wichita State +19.3 141.7 91% 54–78 ✓
Marquette @ Iowa State +4.5 153.3 68% 70–81 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Memphis +11.5 152.1 83% 71–81 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa -1.4 151.5 41% 76–55 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC +1.3 148.0 58% 83–56 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock +9.7 139.0 82% 57–63 ✓
Montana State @ Omaha -2.8 142.6 40% 76–65 ✓
Idaho State @ South Dakota +2.4 150.6 63% 80–94 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Oral Roberts +1.1 143.0 52% 76–83 ✓
Idaho @ Kansas City +1.6 133.6 53% 82–77 ✗
St. Thomas @ Northern Colorado +5.6 156.3 68% 87–75 ✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota -5.3 131.3 27% 90–72 ✓
NJIT @ Seton Hall +11.5 126.1 85% 56–67 ✓
Kansas @ Creighton -3.1 146.1 40% 63–76 ✗
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State +2.4 136.8 59% 78–70 ✗
Wyoming @ Utah State +16.0 145.0 90% 67–70 ✓
San José State @ New Mexico +16.4 148.3 87% 77–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Colorado State +5.0 143.0 67% 54–83 ✓
Sacramento State @ Denver -1.0 137.2 42% 59–80 ✗
South Dakota State @ Montana +1.0 150.2 59% 67–71 ✓
North Dakota State @ Weber State +2.7 145.6 63% 77–73 ✗
North Dakota @ Eastern Washington +9.9 146.0 80% 81–87 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Mississippi State +4.1 154.9 62% 57–90 ✓
Texas @ NC State +2.6 140.4 58% 63–59 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech -4.5 142.0 33% 80–64 ✓
DePaul @ Texas Tech +10.0 150.1 82% 62–76 ✓
Auburn @ Duke +7.7 142.5 71% 78–84 ✓
Portland State @ Seattle U +11.4 146.3 84% 74–91 ✓
Oregon @ USC -6.6 144.6 20% 68–60 ✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State -8.5 139.8 27% 84–62 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lipscomb +13.5 145.8 86% 60–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy -5.0 148.4 40% 78–79 ✗
Alabama State @ Southern Miss +0.8 152.1 59% 64–81 ✓
Purdue @ Penn State +5.0 146.2 73% 70–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.