Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–45 on winners spread MAE 9.6 131 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Manhattan +2.8 143.5 59% 55–76 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +0.1 140.4 51% 71–63 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +0.2 144.1 54% 88–79 ✗
Harvard @ Columbia +4.5 145.1 70% 90–82 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cornell +11.0 159.4 84% 64–76 ✓
Akron @ Kent State +0.4 145.9 45% 85–71 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +11.2 141.1 87% 69–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack +8.5 131.0 79% 66–58 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider +0.1 126.8 47% 64–67 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius -2.6 137.2 33% 64–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +13.2 146.0 88% 76–81 ✓
Siena @ Marist +4.4 131.4 68% 67–72 ✓
Florida @ Tennessee +2.7 137.3 65% 44–64 ✓
Providence @ St. John's +13.0 141.6 88% 66–68 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest -1.8 138.1 48% 74–76 ✗
Washington @ Minnesota +3.2 138.3 68% 71–68 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +12.2 140.7 85% 72–74 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +3.7 150.8 64% 88–61 ✗
Arizona @ Arizona State -3.2 147.9 37% 81–72 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner +2.7 132.3 65% 61–73 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +0.9 161.9 54% 83–67 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +0.8 140.9 47% 62–60 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +9.7 137.9 85% 76–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +4.5 138.9 67% 57–67 ✓
Hofstra @ Campbell +1.9 133.5 65% 52–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +9.6 149.2 83% 68–87 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +13.7 145.1 88% 56–82 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -13.2 142.2 14% 83–58 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan +1.9 149.1 66% 54–61 ✓
Clemson @ NC State -5.0 134.5 30% 68–58 ✓
Auburn @ Ole Miss -5.0 146.6 26% 92–82 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +14.4 147.1 88% 80–61 ✗
Wisconsin @ Northwestern -2.5 147.0 44% 75–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +12.0 146.5 87% 69–79 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian -7.9 145.6 22% 84–72 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +4.8 158.7 73% 93–96 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -3.9 147.0 38% 85–89 ✗
Charlotte @ UAB +10.1 153.9 81% 78–96 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +4.8 149.2 70% 94–98 ✓
Florida State @ Boston College -7.5 148.6 28% 76–77 ✗
Massachusetts @ Duquesne +4.1 146.6 67% 62–53 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois -4.5 129.9 21% 75–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Navy +3.0 143.0 64% 85–75 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +6.0 141.2 72% 76–61 ✗
Army @ American University +4.6 142.0 71% 68–71 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland +0.2 129.5 50% 67–69 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -3.2 133.9 36% 67–73 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill -4.0 131.3 28% 71–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont -3.1 130.4 34% 49–55 ✗
Bryant @ NJIT -10.1 144.7 16% 92–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +8.5 146.1 80% 84–79 ✗
Delaware @ Monmouth +0.7 155.9 60% 83–92 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -7.3 156.1 28% 75–80 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +7.0 152.6 78% 84–93 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +12.6 154.9 86% 85–89 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago -2.3 144.7 42% 55–58 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +0.2 144.7 55% 67–73 ✓
Howard @ Hampton +2.9 146.8 65% 79–80 ✓
Utah @ Oklahoma State -2.0 145.8 50% 72–81 ✗
Murray State @ Missouri State -2.3 139.1 42% 56–77 ✗
Indiana State @ UIC +10.8 161.3 84% 88–83 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin -1.1 128.1 42% 67–62 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +1.0 140.5 50% 72–49 ✗
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +7.8 143.2 78% 71–73 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +4.7 141.9 70% 68–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +2.3 141.2 65% 69–101 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M -4.0 131.8 33% 50–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Oklahoma +2.2 151.4 59% 67–97 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +6.1 154.0 73% 63–79 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers -4.3 153.8 34% 66–63 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.5 138.9 62% 67–60 ✗
VMI @ Western Carolina -6.7 140.9 23% 80–76 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +3.7 157.0 70% 69–73 ✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech -7.7 148.2 21% 70–77 ✗
Georgia @ Alabama +11.1 155.6 85% 69–90 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +2.5 149.0 66% 70–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +18.2 150.2 89% 60–82 ✓
BYU @ UCF -0.3 157.6 42% 81–75 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +4.5 127.9 65% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ VCU +17.3 135.5 89% 49–90 ✓
George Mason @ Davidson -3.0 133.2 37% 64–60 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State +6.3 151.9 78% 63–76 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +4.0 143.4 69% 71–87 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +7.3 146.6 79% 69–87 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +9.9 137.1 84% 54–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +9.8 141.5 85% 62–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +6.2 129.4 70% 84–75 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +15.1 137.9 88% 66–73 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky +5.8 148.4 76% 82–88 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech +7.4 145.4 79% 61–66 ✓
Michigan State @ USC -2.7 149.0 38% 64–70 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +7.2 145.1 77% 65–67 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -5.1 142.7 23% 84–61 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +3.1 138.4 58% 69–67 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls -7.5 141.5 26% 63–71 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +11.3 141.8 86% 68–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss +1.7 149.2 60% 68–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +13.8 133.8 87% 50–87 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +0.6 145.5 52% 78–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois -6.2 131.6 24% 69–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +2.1 137.0 56% 76–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +4.5 148.7 72% 87–89 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +8.5 144.5 77% 78–86 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +9.4 133.7 83% 64–75 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +6.6 144.8 78% 49–69 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State -4.0 148.4 33% 85–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +20.7 145.0 91% 80–87 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo -2.0 150.4 46% 89–76 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -1.3 136.0 52% 61–72 ✗
Florida International @ Kennesaw State +6.0 143.2 77% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +0.7 140.1 52% 65–50 ✗
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.2 141.1 70% 64–67 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.9 147.7 43% 73–83 ✗
Texas Tech @ Houston +9.0 131.3 77% 82–81 ✗
UTSA @ North Texas +14.4 132.5 88% 54–50 ✗
Stanford @ SMU +6.0 149.1 72% 61–85 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +11.5 150.0 84% 60–75 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -11.7 149.1 14% 90–61 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern +10.5 132.6 86% 69–74 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +6.0 154.8 74% 95–89 ✗
Sacramento State @ Montana +10.2 138.8 83% 59–87 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +0.8 138.7 52% 64–74 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +5.1 130.7 75% 54–55 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +7.8 156.5 78% 81–78 ✗
Texas @ LSU +0.3 143.4 52% 89–58 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -5.8 141.4 32% 78–62 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +4.7 133.4 69% 74–62 ✗
UT Martin @ Little Rock +5.5 137.0 69% 57–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +13.0 150.1 87% 70–87 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.3 138.9 58% 79–76 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M +6.8 148.5 80% 79–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.