I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–11 on winners spread MAE 9.9 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arizona @ UConn +8.5 153.2 75% 71–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ South Carolina State -1.3 142.0 40% 78–66 ✓
South Alabama @ Jacksonville State +6.1 136.0 67% 71–65 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Ohio +4.3 157.3 73% 76–73 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Indiana State +11.5 137.6 82% 51–60 ✓
Hofstra @ Temple +6.3 150.5 66% 76–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ South Carolina Upstate +7.7 133.2 73% 88–84 ✗
Howard @ Stetson +3.6 139.6 56% 60–64 ✓
North Florida @ Wofford +12.1 148.0 88% 78–86 ✓
William & Mary @ Bowling Green +22.0 153.0 89% 82–74 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Samford +7.4 157.8 72% 77–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Toledo +0.2 151.4 52% 75–92 ✓
Valparaiso @ Cleveland State +3.5 146.4 65% 90–75 ✗
Villanova @ La Salle -5.0 142.5 40% 70–55 ✓
Bryant @ Virginia Tech +29.8 152.8 90% 61–78 ✓
Bellarmine @ Notre Dame +32.5 151.2 91% 79–86 ✓
VMI @ Richmond +13.9 154.7 86% 54–87 ✓
UMBC @ George Washington +18.7 149.1 88% 52–89 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Duquesne +9.7 147.4 79% 78–92 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Maryland +14.7 136.0 87% 90–95 ✓
Wyoming @ Sam Houston -2.7 158.2 41% 70–78 ✗
Maine @ Merrimack +5.5 130.6 66% 65–72 ✓
Dayton @ Marquette +5.1 150.2 63% 77–71 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina -0.1 145.1 56% 73–80 ✗
UC Irvine @ Utah Valley +4.3 151.5 67% 72–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bradley +23.0 144.4 91% 77–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Creighton +21.9 149.4 89% 60–75 ✓
South Florida @ Oklahoma State +3.9 160.5 56% 95–103 ✓
Kansas City @ TCU +16.6 149.0 89% 45–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Belmont +22.2 143.4 88% 68–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Auburn +33.0 153.7 91% 66–112 ✓
Alabama @ Illinois +6.5 164.3 74% 90–86 ✗
Arkansas State @ Saint Mary's +19.1 145.4 88% 72–85 ✓
Campbell @ Weber State +4.6 153.0 72% 85–91 ✓
Southern Utah @ Washington State +14.7 150.5 89% 74–98 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Incarnate Word +7.0 135.0 63% 81–87 ✓
High Point @ UIC -3.4 147.8 35% 90–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Marshall +17.8 152.6 90% 70–98 ✓
Memphis @ Purdue +9.6 149.0 73% 71–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Indiana +31.3 151.6 91% 53–73 ✓
Robert Morris @ St. Bonaventure +14.2 149.0 86% 61–75 ✓
Brown @ Stony Brook +14.5 136.5 85% 70–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.