You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–6 on winners spread MAE 11.5 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Texas A&M @ UConn +30.4 144.1 91% 46–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Kentucky +28.9 151.3 91% 68–97 ✓
Cincinnati @ Northern Kentucky -15.9 131.2 14% 76–60 ✓
Florida A&M @ Florida +33.1 156.7 91% 60–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Green Bay +1.7 147.9 53% 57–82 ✓
Drexel @ Fairfield -1.5 129.7 34% 67–61 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charlotte +1.0 149.0 50% 54–60 ✓
Hampton @ UMBC +5.3 135.1 68% 78–68 ✗
Troy @ West Georgia -4.5 135.6 36% 84–65 ✓
Wagner @ Boston University +5.7 125.4 61% 60–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Chicago State -7.2 143.6 23% 86–66 ✓
Buffalo @ Vermont +6.5 136.5 66% 67–78 ✓
Niagara @ Bowling Green +8.0 152.7 80% 68–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Marist +13.1 152.8 85% 62–75 ✓
Milwaukee @ Duquesne +3.4 141.7 65% 80–74 ✗
North Dakota @ Notre Dame +22.5 145.7 87% 58–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Florida State +2.1 138.5 61% 61–79 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UCF +16.1 144.6 86% 69–80 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Villanova +12.3 145.5 83% 49–93 ✓
Delaware State @ Providence +19.3 130.0 87% 48–78 ✓
Evansville @ Ohio State +23.0 143.5 90% 30–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Minnesota +11.6 128.0 81% 47–58 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia +20.8 146.3 86% 45–93 ✓
Canisius @ Maryland +28.1 139.6 91% 37–108 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wake Forest +14.0 130.8 83% 69–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ Louisville +25.1 139.0 89% 68–100 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Belmont +11.4 149.6 85% 80–90 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Tulane +12.4 141.2 85% 57–72 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Kansas +17.6 151.3 87% 66–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Missouri State +9.3 166.7 82% 68–78 ✓
Samford @ Michigan State +10.3 155.5 80% 75–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ Northern Iowa +10.3 139.1 81% 56–82 ✓
Charleston Southern @ LSU +26.5 145.8 91% 68–77 ✓
Alcorn State @ TCU +36.2 140.4 91% 48–71 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Kansas State +26.6 139.2 91% 56–74 ✓
Rider @ Iowa +17.1 144.3 85% 58–83 ✓
Rice @ Louisiana +2.6 136.8 45% 83–61 ✗
Southern Utah @ Loyola Chicago +10.4 147.4 77% 72–76 ✓
Purdue @ Marquette +15.2 150.8 84% 58–76 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ DePaul +26.0 149.6 90% 69–78 ✓
Montana State @ Northwestern +18.3 139.1 88% 69–72 ✓
UC Riverside @ Santa Clara -1.8 151.8 49% 54–96 ✗
Charleston @ The Citadel +2.3 147.0 59% 76–61 ✗
Siena @ Xavier +11.4 148.5 82% 55–80 ✓
Yale @ Stony Brook -2.3 149.7 27% 86–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.