Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–15 on winners spread MAE 10.8 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T +12.9 155.7 85% 83–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Morehead State -3.8 142.2 28% 58–63 ✗
Columbia @ Long Island University +0.4 148.8 57% 80–72 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Army +12.1 155.1 86% 70–84 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Michigan -1.0 153.8 39% 80–76 ✓
Elon @ Northern Illinois -0.6 142.7 47% 75–48 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ball State +6.1 145.7 75% 70–59 ✗
Maine @ Richmond +1.2 133.1 55% 66–70 ✓
Lafayette @ Rhode Island +24.1 149.0 89% 72–86 ✓
New Mexico State @ Dayton +13.2 144.2 83% 53–74 ✓
Coppin State @ George Mason +24.8 136.2 91% 55–93 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Penn State +18.2 158.7 86% 89–102 ✓
Jacksonville @ Virginia Tech +9.5 136.3 76% 74–64 ✗
Iona @ West Virginia +13.9 143.6 86% 43–86 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kennesaw State +15.3 142.8 85% 78–84 ✓
Towson @ Nicholls +4.5 135.1 67% 70–64 ✗
Southern @ Texas A&M +23.1 147.9 89% 54–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Rutgers +15.2 134.5 86% 63–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Dakota State +9.0 153.5 78% 76–101 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +8.2 155.3 72% 71–57 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Murray State +25.8 152.5 90% 61–79 ✓
Jackson State @ Western Kentucky +11.0 146.7 85% 62–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgetown +0.9 145.0 50% 51–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Gonzaga +35.8 148.8 90% 41–84 ✓
Illinois @ Alabama -0.7 155.1 43% 87–100 ✗
UC Davis @ Grand Canyon +3.1 153.5 59% 75–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Arizona State +11.4 149.3 82% 89–93 ✓
UTEP @ UC Santa Barbara +29.7 148.7 90% 79–76 ✗
Pepperdine @ UNLV +11.7 153.7 83% 59–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Fresno State +12.8 147.9 85% 83–94 ✓
San José State @ USC +14.6 139.2 86% 68–82 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stanford +13.8 143.0 84% 63–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ California Baptist +2.1 151.8 59% 79–68 ✗
Idaho State @ UCLA +15.1 127.6 87% 70–84 ✓
James Madison @ UIC +3.9 151.8 62% 99–81 ✗
Ohio @ Middle Tennessee +3.9 148.9 67% 81–83 ✓
Miami @ Drake -5.4 143.8 23% 69–80 ✗
La Salle @ UC San Diego -4.1 140.8 39% 67–72 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida Atlantic +2.4 163.0 65% 78–86 ✓
South Florida @ Portland -3.3 142.1 34% 74–68 ✓
East Carolina @ Jacksonville State +1.3 136.8 60% 78–86 ✓
Youngstown State @ Monmouth -3.9 150.4 32% 72–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ VCU +5.8 126.1 77% 69–66 ✗
Bradley @ Texas State -2.5 140.1 38% 82–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cornell +7.4 144.7 69% 86–76 ✗
Toledo @ Stetson -12.5 148.9 16% 103–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Indiana +21.1 144.5 88% 58–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.