They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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58–26 on winners spread MAE 9.5 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +6.7 137.8 71% 70–67 ✗
Portland @ Kent State +13.7 132.3 86% 57–76 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Davidson +12.7 149.9 84% 72–73 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +13.5 151.1 85% 57–76 ✓
Georgetown @ West Virginia +11.7 143.0 79% 60–73 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart +5.1 140.9 74% 59–83 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +2.3 142.5 64% 50–53 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +3.9 133.8 67% 72–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Canisius -6.9 134.4 23% 60–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia State +0.5 148.2 55% 81–77 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ UAB +12.7 162.9 86% 66–95 ✓
North Texas @ High Point -2.6 131.0 39% 71–76 ✗
Illinois @ Northwestern -5.6 139.9 28% 66–70 ✗
Kansas State @ St. John's +11.1 151.0 80% 71–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +4.3 142.7 72% 53–65 ✓
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +6.0 149.9 77% 64–69 ✓
Clemson @ Miami -7.0 142.5 24% 65–55 ✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest +5.3 130.3 73% 66–72 ✓
Princeton @ Furman +6.7 139.3 76% 63–69 ✓
Rutgers @ Ohio State +12.7 155.8 86% 66–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Michigan State +3.4 146.0 71% 52–89 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +3.0 153.8 63% 96–83 ✗
Providence @ Rhode Island +8.2 142.9 80% 63–69 ✓
South Florida @ Loyola Chicago +14.5 145.9 86% 72–74 ✓
UMBC @ Towson +10.0 138.5 79% 84–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Boston University +2.2 138.3 59% 74–80 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -2.8 141.9 42% 80–72 ✓
Queens University @ VMI +4.1 142.3 63% 81–78 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +10.3 150.6 78% 74–88 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech -12.7 138.1 16% 64–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +12.8 158.5 85% 65–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +7.8 140.8 79% 47–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T -1.5 143.7 41% 67–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +10.2 146.3 81% 78–77 ✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington +5.2 140.7 71% 69–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Evansville +0.2 144.3 46% 79–65 ✗
Southern Utah @ Arizona +14.1 151.4 85% 66–102 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia +0.4 140.9 50% 73–78 ✓
Navy @ NJIT +1.5 139.9 47% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Delaware State -0.9 140.4 48% 77–80 ✗
Vermont @ Yale +12.0 138.5 81% 50–65 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan +4.9 148.0 72% 83–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +3.3 131.6 63% 69–56 ✗
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +8.9 146.0 78% 81–102 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Arizona -0.3 152.7 54% 82–95 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +5.5 141.9 72% 70–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Dayton +17.7 152.4 88% 62–86 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason +17.6 142.0 87% 64–76 ✓
UTSA @ Arkansas +21.7 151.5 90% 60–75 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina +11.2 140.3 82% 68–75 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -1.6 126.7 46% 50–66 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis +0.5 141.4 47% 66–64 ✗
Virginia @ SMU +11.4 138.9 84% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southern Illinois +4.0 146.0 69% 70–73 ✓
Stony Brook @ Air Force +4.0 132.3 73% 61–69 ✓
Southern @ Tulsa -0.3 141.9 55% 70–66 ✓
Lafayette @ Mercyhurst -0.3 133.8 39% 77–73 ✓
Montana @ St. Thomas +10.4 150.1 81% 81–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +6.7 151.8 64% 74–68 ✗
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +3.6 144.5 61% 83–61 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +4.4 156.2 69% 79–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ James Madison +7.2 144.6 76% 61–78 ✓
Seattle U @ UTEP +0.7 137.9 56% 72–88 ✓
Florida State @ NC State +0.5 140.1 51% 74–84 ✓
Stanford @ California +3.8 150.3 67% 89–81 ✗
Washington State @ Boise State +6.9 150.2 73% 74–69 ✗
Morehead State @ Ohio +11.0 148.4 82% 76–88 ✓
Omaha @ Sacramento State +3.0 133.5 55% 70–60 ✗
Buffalo @ St. Bonaventure +20.7 137.4 90% 55–65 ✓
George Washington @ Old Dominion -7.7 144.2 22% 78–70 ✓
UNLV @ Creighton +10.1 140.4 81% 65–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -2.9 133.6 41% 68–76 ✗
Villanova @ Temple -3.6 144.3 31% 94–65 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -4.1 134.3 41% 64–57 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.7 135.0 69% 48–67 ✓
Grambling @ Pepperdine -0.6 137.4 51% 57–85 ✗
Idaho @ Oregon State +20.7 142.1 89% 62–78 ✓
Denver @ Portland State +6.9 155.0 67% 68–67 ✗
Butler @ Houston +12.0 134.4 84% 51–79 ✓
Texas Southern @ Sam Houston +10.2 150.8 82% 71–87 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +10.1 149.0 78% 84–52 ✗
USC @ Washington +5.2 135.7 72% 85–61 ✗
Binghamton @ Le Moyne +4.1 144.5 68% 72–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +18.5 138.8 89% 57–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.