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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.6 147.2 48% 82–68 ✓
Wofford @ Elon +6.5 137.8 71% 56–79 ✓
Pacific @ Illinois State +7.3 144.7 78% 61–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Santa Clara +15.7 149.4 88% 66–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.1 152.3 26% 78–84 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wichita State +6.5 142.9 73% 87–96 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah +6.7 144.9 72% 72–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +6.3 134.9 76% 89–96 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +36.0 128.6 91% 52–89 ✓
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +10.9 150.5 85% 53–74 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Southern -0.1 158.4 58% 91–93 ✗
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +28.9 142.6 91% 78–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ Ole Miss +26.2 148.3 91% 53–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +4.6 154.4 67% 80–77 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Idaho State +10.6 148.0 84% 55–71 ✓
Weber State @ North Dakota +1.5 144.0 55% 75–80 ✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +3.8 153.1 70% 70–82 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +1.8 155.6 52% 102–91 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +8.4 133.6 80% 68–75 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -1.5 139.0 47% 60–71 ✗
Colorado State @ Colorado +6.9 146.0 74% 55–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah State +19.2 147.8 88% 62–92 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +17.4 148.3 86% 89–83 ✗
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -6.1 137.3 29% 64–68 ✗
Kansas City @ Montana State +14.7 137.7 86% 62–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +2.5 161.1 61% 90–89 ✗
San Diego @ San Diego State +23.7 138.3 90% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +11.3 140.6 86% 60–81 ✓
Richmond @ Auburn +26.2 149.8 90% 54–98 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue +0.2 142.7 55% 78–83 ✓
Maine @ Fordham +1.9 140.5 61% 72–87 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall -0.1 129.8 45% 85–76 ✓
Vanderbilt @ TCU -3.5 143.8 36% 83–74 ✓
Kansas @ Missouri +3.7 151.5 60% 67–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona -3.6 133.4 41% 63–72 ✗
Wagner @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.2 125.5 23% 63–61 ✓
Cornell @ Army +1.6 158.4 60% 103–84 ✗
Harvard @ New Hampshire -4.0 132.3 27% 72–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +20.9 139.7 91% 51–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Niagara +1.1 126.8 55% 80–62 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -9.1 138.6 21% 66–53 ✓
Howard @ Cincinnati +26.5 142.0 91% 67–84 ✓
Colgate @ Northeastern +12.6 133.0 87% 75–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Radford +8.8 139.4 81% 70–74 ✓
Ball State @ SIU Edwardsville +8.3 135.4 74% 69–82 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.3 145.3 83% 77–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +0.6 143.4 53% 73–83 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +1.6 139.5 56% 82–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +6.9 137.6 74% 94–101 ✓
Austin Peay @ Samford +10.7 146.3 82% 47–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Louis +15.1 146.9 89% 62–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ LSU +12.5 140.9 84% 71–80 ✓
Mercer @ Stetson -2.9 154.5 37% 89–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +0.5 141.4 55% 72–67 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +5.8 136.1 70% 66–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Memphis +14.5 145.8 84% 85–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +11.5 143.5 83% 53–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +3.3 138.2 64% 74–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi State +32.6 166.9 91% 84–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana -9.8 150.3 16% 69–58 ✓
UConn @ Texas +5.1 143.7 71% 76–65 ✗
Dartmouth @ UIC +7.6 153.1 75% 68–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +33.2 148.8 91% 58–100 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -4.2 135.0 28% 76–65 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +4.1 136.6 57% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.