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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 11.2 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boston University @ New Hampshire -4.2 132.4 32% 82–88 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +4.9 133.9 68% 57–49 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah +1.7 142.6 58% 85–91 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly +4.1 151.2 72% 88–84 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Villanova +18.0 145.2 89% 63–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Grand Canyon -6.8 142.2 29% 84–78 ✓
Florida State @ Houston +6.4 143.4 73% 67–82 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee -0.8 148.9 46% 75–62 ✓
Ole Miss @ St. John's +16.9 151.9 88% 58–63 ✓
Montana @ North Dakota -2.6 145.3 40% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota State +11.8 142.6 84% 68–69 ✓
Montana State @ Oral Roberts -4.7 145.4 31% 68–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +13.1 144.7 88% 55–84 ✓
Wichita State @ Northern Iowa +3.5 126.8 64% 74–69 ✗
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee -0.3 150.7 45% 72–74 ✗
Chicago State @ Illinois State +22.0 144.6 91% 53–95 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Colorado +13.2 152.9 87% 87–89 ✓
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois -4.9 142.9 27% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ DePaul +15.5 150.9 88% 72–76 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico -3.7 147.3 32% 71–98 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +8.4 148.9 84% 84–109 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -10.0 147.9 20% 80–74 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock -7.3 143.4 29% 90–78 ✓
Auburn @ Arizona +12.7 156.9 82% 68–97 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arizona State -4.5 151.9 33% 70–86 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +9.4 138.1 83% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +13.1 152.1 86% 59–69 ✓
Air Force @ Navy +10.9 136.0 84% 56–61 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +3.0 142.3 59% 60–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +8.6 145.0 77% 55–77 ✓
Weber State @ St. Thomas +3.3 150.3 69% 65–88 ✓
Fairfield @ Merrimack +1.1 140.4 58% 63–74 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern +2.3 143.0 60% 56–73 ✓
UTSA @ Alabama +31.4 154.3 90% 55–97 ✓
Austin Peay @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.1 142.6 60% 50–63 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Davidson -2.2 143.5 43% 70–61 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart -1.1 159.9 51% 81–69 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast -0.4 154.1 47% 81–76 ✓
Utah State @ Charlotte -4.8 143.2 35% 79–53 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +18.3 143.1 91% 58–72 ✓
UIC @ Yale +17.2 149.0 88% 66–80 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +4.5 133.8 66% 43–71 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +16.3 125.3 90% 52–74 ✓
Manhattan @ Marist +12.2 130.4 85% 68–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Radford +9.0 147.4 78% 56–89 ✓
LSU @ Texas Tech -1.3 149.0 44% 58–82 ✗
UL Monroe @ Stephen F. Austin +18.8 139.0 90% 76–96 ✓
Alabama State @ UT Martin +11.3 142.3 83% 64–74 ✓
Central Michigan @ Saint Louis +25.4 150.0 90% 65–107 ✓
San Francisco @ Mississippi State +0.1 147.0 50% 65–62 ✗
Towson @ UCF +10.6 142.8 81% 61–86 ✓
UNLV @ Stanford +15.1 162.6 88% 75–74 ✗
Hofstra @ Pittsburgh +3.0 136.3 65% 80–73 ✗
Belmont @ Middle Tennessee +2.4 148.5 58% 83–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +6.9 135.9 66% 76–68 ✗
Georgetown @ North Carolina +15.0 147.7 87% 61–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +9.8 135.3 78% 58–92 ✓
Nevada @ Washington State -0.7 150.4 49% 78–64 ✓
Creighton @ Nebraska +8.9 147.3 76% 50–71 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +5.2 142.9 73% 58–86 ✓
Texas A&M @ SMU +2.3 158.5 51% 80–93 ✓
TCU @ North Texas -4.5 135.4 32% 65–55 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Texas A&M +2.7 139.6 58% 68–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.