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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–6 on winners spread MAE 11.3 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Texas A&M @ UConn +23.2 143.8 91% 46–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Kentucky +23.7 151.2 90% 68–97 ✓
Cincinnati @ Northern Kentucky -10.1 131.3 18% 76–60 ✓
Florida A&M @ Florida +23.9 154.9 91% 60–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Green Bay +1.6 146.4 51% 57–82 ✓
Drexel @ Fairfield -1.7 132.1 38% 67–61 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charlotte +1.6 146.7 50% 54–60 ✓
Hampton @ UMBC +3.9 133.3 63% 78–68 ✗
Troy @ West Georgia -4.2 136.2 29% 84–65 ✓
Wagner @ Boston University +5.1 121.2 64% 60–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Chicago State -7.3 142.6 23% 86–66 ✓
Buffalo @ Vermont +5.6 136.8 69% 67–78 ✓
Niagara @ Bowling Green +7.9 152.2 79% 68–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Marist +12.0 151.5 86% 62–75 ✓
Milwaukee @ Duquesne +2.8 140.9 61% 80–74 ✗
North Dakota @ Notre Dame +17.0 144.5 89% 58–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Florida State +2.8 138.8 54% 61–79 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UCF +14.4 142.2 87% 69–80 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Villanova +12.3 145.8 85% 49–93 ✓
Delaware State @ Providence +17.0 130.4 88% 48–78 ✓
Evansville @ Ohio State +20.0 141.6 90% 30–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Minnesota +9.7 126.5 78% 47–58 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia +16.8 144.9 88% 45–93 ✓
Canisius @ Maryland +23.6 139.8 91% 37–108 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wake Forest +11.2 133.5 84% 69–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ Louisville +21.5 139.3 89% 68–100 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Belmont +11.0 148.3 84% 80–90 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Tulane +11.1 140.4 83% 57–72 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Kansas +16.3 152.4 87% 66–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Missouri State +7.9 158.8 76% 68–78 ✓
Samford @ Michigan State +8.9 156.0 75% 75–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ Northern Iowa +10.3 139.5 82% 56–82 ✓
Charleston Southern @ LSU +19.9 145.5 91% 68–77 ✓
Alcorn State @ TCU +25.4 138.4 91% 48–71 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Kansas State +22.0 136.3 91% 56–74 ✓
Rider @ Iowa +15.2 144.1 88% 58–83 ✓
Rice @ Louisiana +0.6 137.8 50% 83–61 ✗
Southern Utah @ Loyola Chicago +9.0 145.7 81% 72–76 ✓
Purdue @ Marquette +13.2 148.1 84% 58–76 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ DePaul +20.1 147.7 90% 69–78 ✓
Montana State @ Northwestern +16.6 139.6 87% 69–72 ✓
UC Riverside @ Santa Clara -1.0 150.3 35% 54–96 ✗
Charleston @ The Citadel +1.6 146.5 52% 76–61 ✗
Siena @ Xavier +10.1 146.4 80% 55–80 ✓
Yale @ Stony Brook -3.3 149.7 39% 86–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.