Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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58–26 on winners spread MAE 9.3 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +7.1 138.8 77% 70–67 ✗
Portland @ Kent State +13.1 132.5 87% 57–76 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Davidson +11.3 149.5 86% 72–73 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +13.0 149.9 86% 57–76 ✓
Georgetown @ West Virginia +11.4 142.9 83% 60–73 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart +4.9 141.1 74% 59–83 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +1.9 141.4 63% 50–53 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +3.6 132.8 66% 72–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Canisius -6.3 132.0 28% 60–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia State +0.6 146.5 50% 81–77 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ UAB +13.7 159.7 86% 66–95 ✓
North Texas @ High Point -2.0 130.9 37% 71–76 ✗
Illinois @ Northwestern -5.5 140.0 32% 66–70 ✗
Kansas State @ St. John's +12.0 150.5 83% 71–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +5.0 141.9 73% 53–65 ✓
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +6.6 150.3 77% 64–69 ✓
Clemson @ Miami -8.6 143.0 24% 65–55 ✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest +4.5 130.8 71% 66–72 ✓
Princeton @ Furman +6.6 137.0 76% 63–69 ✓
Rutgers @ Ohio State +13.8 156.1 87% 66–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Michigan State +4.4 144.4 68% 52–89 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +2.9 155.8 61% 96–83 ✗
Providence @ Rhode Island +9.4 142.2 81% 63–69 ✓
South Florida @ Loyola Chicago +14.8 145.9 88% 72–74 ✓
UMBC @ Towson +9.4 138.3 81% 84–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Boston University +2.3 137.7 54% 74–80 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -1.8 142.4 43% 80–72 ✓
Queens University @ VMI +4.0 141.6 65% 81–78 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +10.9 150.4 81% 74–88 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech -11.4 138.9 16% 64–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +11.6 158.7 87% 65–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +8.1 139.1 79% 47–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T -1.4 143.3 41% 67–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +9.4 146.0 82% 78–77 ✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington +4.8 140.5 72% 69–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Evansville +0.9 143.8 51% 79–65 ✗
Southern Utah @ Arizona +14.8 150.6 85% 66–102 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia -0.3 139.6 44% 73–78 ✗
Navy @ NJIT +1.2 138.5 50% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Delaware State -1.0 138.6 44% 77–80 ✗
Vermont @ Yale +10.8 137.7 85% 50–65 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan +6.3 147.1 73% 83–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +2.6 132.0 60% 69–56 ✗
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +8.7 146.0 79% 81–102 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Arizona +1.1 155.6 50% 82–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +5.9 142.3 76% 70–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Dayton +16.9 150.9 89% 62–86 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason +16.9 141.8 88% 64–76 ✓
UTSA @ Arkansas +20.5 150.4 91% 60–75 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina +10.9 139.8 83% 68–75 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -0.9 125.7 45% 50–66 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis +0.7 140.3 52% 66–64 ✗
Virginia @ SMU +11.3 138.0 87% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southern Illinois +3.7 145.2 67% 70–73 ✓
Stony Brook @ Air Force +4.5 131.1 67% 61–69 ✓
Southern @ Tulsa -0.1 141.7 48% 70–66 ✓
Lafayette @ Mercyhurst -0.8 133.6 42% 77–73 ✓
Montana @ St. Thomas +10.3 149.3 81% 81–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +6.5 155.1 74% 74–68 ✗
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +3.1 144.6 65% 83–61 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +4.1 156.0 67% 79–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ James Madison +7.4 144.0 76% 61–78 ✓
Seattle U @ UTEP +1.6 138.2 54% 72–88 ✓
Florida State @ NC State +0.2 138.8 52% 74–84 ✓
Stanford @ California +4.1 149.4 72% 89–81 ✗
Washington State @ Boise State +7.4 149.3 75% 74–69 ✗
Morehead State @ Ohio +10.3 148.1 83% 76–88 ✓
Omaha @ Sacramento State +2.4 134.4 57% 70–60 ✗
Buffalo @ St. Bonaventure +18.0 136.4 91% 55–65 ✓
George Washington @ Old Dominion -7.5 143.9 19% 78–70 ✓
UNLV @ Creighton +9.8 142.9 82% 65–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -2.9 133.1 35% 68–76 ✗
Villanova @ Temple -4.7 144.6 35% 94–65 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -3.6 134.3 36% 64–57 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.7 134.5 68% 48–67 ✓
Grambling @ Pepperdine -0.0 137.5 45% 57–85 ✗
Idaho @ Oregon State +18.8 141.3 90% 62–78 ✓
Denver @ Portland State +6.0 154.9 72% 68–67 ✗
Butler @ Houston +12.6 134.3 82% 51–79 ✓
Texas Southern @ Sam Houston +9.7 150.3 82% 71–87 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +9.8 147.6 86% 84–52 ✗
USC @ Washington +4.6 135.7 76% 85–61 ✗
Binghamton @ Le Moyne +3.6 142.5 65% 72–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +16.9 138.6 89% 57–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.