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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–17 on winners spread MAE 8.5 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.6 145.3 47% 82–68 ✓
Wofford @ Elon +6.6 137.9 73% 56–79 ✓
Pacific @ Illinois State +7.1 143.2 77% 61–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Santa Clara +15.8 149.1 88% 66–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.8 153.2 28% 78–84 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wichita State +6.9 142.6 76% 87–96 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah +6.6 144.7 68% 72–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +6.5 135.6 75% 89–96 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +23.8 129.7 90% 52–89 ✓
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +11.3 148.7 85% 53–74 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Southern +0.5 160.5 51% 91–93 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +23.1 142.9 91% 78–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ Ole Miss +23.7 147.5 91% 53–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +5.0 154.9 74% 80–77 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Idaho State +10.7 146.3 85% 55–71 ✓
Weber State @ North Dakota +1.8 143.1 56% 75–80 ✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +3.9 153.5 66% 70–82 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +1.3 156.2 62% 102–91 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +8.0 134.4 82% 68–75 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -0.8 139.6 50% 60–71 ✗
Colorado State @ Colorado +6.9 145.4 75% 55–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah State +18.5 146.5 90% 62–92 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +16.4 147.9 88% 89–83 ✗
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -5.9 136.7 25% 64–68 ✗
Kansas City @ Montana State +14.1 139.4 88% 62–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +3.1 161.4 59% 90–89 ✗
San Diego @ San Diego State +22.3 137.7 90% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +9.9 140.7 87% 60–81 ✓
Richmond @ Auburn +23.4 147.9 90% 54–98 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue +1.3 141.3 57% 78–83 ✓
Maine @ Fordham +2.4 139.5 58% 72–87 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall +0.5 131.9 48% 85–76 ✗
Vanderbilt @ TCU -4.3 142.6 32% 83–74 ✓
Kansas @ Missouri +3.7 152.5 60% 67–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona -2.8 133.1 37% 63–72 ✗
Wagner @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.5 125.6 30% 63–61 ✓
Cornell @ Army +1.7 158.2 60% 103–84 ✗
Harvard @ New Hampshire -4.6 131.4 28% 72–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +19.1 138.6 91% 51–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Niagara +1.1 126.4 59% 80–62 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -8.0 137.1 24% 66–53 ✓
Howard @ Cincinnati +23.5 140.8 91% 67–84 ✓
Colgate @ Northeastern +12.4 133.9 87% 75–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Radford +7.7 139.9 79% 70–74 ✓
Ball State @ SIU Edwardsville +7.6 136.0 76% 69–82 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.0 144.5 85% 77–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +0.9 143.4 57% 73–83 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +1.6 138.7 59% 82–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +6.6 138.0 77% 94–101 ✓
Austin Peay @ Samford +9.5 145.2 83% 47–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Louis +13.2 146.5 88% 62–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ LSU +12.2 140.6 87% 71–80 ✓
Mercer @ Stetson -2.4 152.5 36% 89–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +0.7 140.2 53% 72–67 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +5.1 135.5 69% 66–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Memphis +14.6 145.4 87% 85–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +11.9 143.7 85% 53–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +4.3 137.8 64% 74–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi State +24.5 169.0 91% 84–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana -9.2 149.2 17% 69–58 ✓
UConn @ Texas +4.5 143.3 69% 76–65 ✗
Dartmouth @ UIC +7.2 152.7 77% 68–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +24.2 149.9 91% 58–100 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -4.2 134.9 34% 76–65 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +4.6 136.9 68% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.