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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–7 on winners spread MAE 7.9 47 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Akron @ Jackson State	-6.9	147.2	22%	68–50	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon	+5.0	131.8	69%	69–73	✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State	+2.5	148.8	61%	65–84	✓
Oregon @ Stanford	-8.0	146.2	23%	76–61	✓
Bucknell @ Gonzaga	+24.2	154.7	91%	65–86	✓
Yale @ UTEP	+2.6	143.5	59%	74–75	✓
Cal Poly @ Omaha	-0.6	156.1	44%	82–86	✗
UC San Diego @ San Diego	-11.0	138.5	15%	77–71	✓
Utah Valley @ Weber State	+1.2	137.5	51%	64–62	✗
Portland State @ Cal State Bakersfield	+5.1	147.1	69%	59–58	✗
San Diego State @ California	-6.3	146.6	27%	71–50	✓
Kennesaw State @ San José State	+4.0	147.7	64%	65–89	✓
Illinois State @ Cornell	+7.4	153.8	76%	80–77	✗
Morgan State @ Iowa State	+26.0	162.0	91%	72–99	✓
Kent State @ Alabama	+15.7	146.1	87%	54–81	✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma	+22.9	150.2	91%	66–89	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Michigan	+14.2	158.2	88%	58–89	✓
New Hampshire @ Stonehill	+10.7	136.3	86%	83–90	✓
Bryant @ Towson	+0.1	141.7	50%	65–70	✓
Binghamton @ Army	+4.9	146.4	68%	78–68	✗
Sacred Heart @ Miami (OH)	+5.4	141.5	71%	76–94	✓
Illinois @ Missouri	-4.0	150.1	37%	80–77	✓
Iona @ Colgate	+4.3	135.8	65%	79–73	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Missouri State	+2.0	140.1	58%	56–68	✓
Pennsylvania @ George Mason	+18.9	133.6	90%	53–85	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wisconsin	+21.6	149.1	90%	53–76	✓
Radford @ South Carolina	+11.6	138.9	83%	48–74	✓
Mercyhurst @ West Virginia	+24.2	138.0	91%	46–67	✓
Montana State @ TCU	+8.5	137.6	77%	48–82	✓
American University @ Virginia	+11.0	127.7	85%	58–63	✓
William & Mary @ VCU	+16.3	151.0	88%	70–90	✓
Brown @ Kansas	+19.6	143.2	89%	53–87	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice	+13.9	154.3	88%	46–64	✓
Alcorn State @ UAB	+14.7	151.1	88%	74–91	✓
McNeese @ Louisiana	-8.0	136.3	19%	64–56	✓
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma State	+13.5	149.0	88%	74–86	✓
Oregon State @ Charleston	-8.2	137.9	21%	74–65	✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas	+17.9	130.9	89%	46–62	✓
LSU New Orleans @ LSU	+23.6	149.6	91%	70–86	✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia	+23.9	145.2	91%	65–81	✓
Grambling @ Cincinnati	+22.0	133.5	90%	49–84	✓
Southern @ USC	+12.8	141.2	86%	51–82	✓
Saint Louis @ Grand Canyon	+8.8	149.9	81%	72–73	✓
Rider @ NC State	+15.3	133.9	87%	63–89	✓
Wyoming @ Cal State Fullerton	-1.4	132.6	43%	73–69	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Oakland	-5.3	132.7	29%	71–72	✗
Le Moyne @ Notre Dame	+14.6	144.6	88%	62–91	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.