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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–23 on winners spread MAE 9.3 79 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina State @ Queens University +21.4 151.2 90% 78–102 ✓
Missouri State @ Xavier +15.5 147.0 88% 57–75 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina A&T +9.1 132.3 76% 79–82 ✓
Texas @ UConn +14.4 144.5 86% 63–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +1.1 137.9 52% 75–76 ✓
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +17.9 136.1 88% 66–102 ✓
California Baptist @ Eastern Washington -3.2 150.2 32% 88–83 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State -7.4 138.9 15% 76–72 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arkansas -0.6 150.1 48% 86–93 ✗
Iona @ St. John's +20.1 157.6 90% 64–91 ✓
UAlbany @ Florida Atlantic +17.0 144.2 88% 79–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Florida State +3.8 152.5 60% 103–95 ✗
DePaul @ Wichita State +12.1 140.0 85% 61–58 ✗
Central Michigan @ Stony Brook +12.4 143.8 85% 55–78 ✓
UL Monroe @ Miami +33.2 148.8 91% 79–104 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Mason +17.9 144.0 89% 61–73 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Elon +13.9 151.7 87% 79–85 ✓
Toledo @ Robert Morris +3.5 148.3 64% 70–75 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +1.8 158.3 63% 85–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Delaware +5.2 147.8 67% 88–66 ✗
Marquette @ Purdue +25.1 151.5 90% 59–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina +19.6 146.2 89% 62–80 ✓
St. Thomas @ UNC Asheville +2.0 143.4 53% 80–59 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +8.2 141.0 80% 69–66 ✗
North Dakota State @ Drake +5.5 143.1 71% 99–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Georgia State -0.9 133.1 32% 73–77 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Utah Valley +6.0 146.5 77% 53–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Northwestern +28.0 140.6 91% 53–93 ✓
Boston University @ Dartmouth +3.9 146.0 66% 64–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ NJIT +0.8 146.2 48% 65–49 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -0.1 144.7 49% 80–76 ✓
Providence @ Butler +10.1 166.2 81% 110–113 ✓
Manhattan @ Fordham +10.4 140.4 83% 53–82 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Quinnipiac +14.0 150.3 88% 71–75 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Davidson +11.7 133.8 80% 47–80 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia +11.4 157.6 84% 65–84 ✓
Evansville @ Notre Dame +19.0 140.7 89% 58–82 ✓
Canisius @ Maine +8.2 126.7 81% 70–43 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ South Dakota +4.8 157.0 71% 85–97 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Georgetown +10.5 142.4 81% 68–76 ✓
George Washington @ Florida +6.2 156.3 69% 70–80 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston +23.1 139.7 91% 57–99 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Kentucky -7.0 156.3 28% 79–69 ✓
Tulsa @ New Mexico State -4.9 143.0 33% 83–70 ✓
Hampton @ Howard -4.1 137.2 37% 57–61 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ole Miss +3.4 139.5 63% 67–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Longwood +9.3 139.2 86% 81–76 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +11.1 127.1 84% 44–65 ✓
Arkansas State @ Rice -0.7 152.5 48% 76–77 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Valparaiso -2.5 134.5 35% 73–70 ✓
Kansas State @ Creighton +4.3 150.4 67% 83–76 ✗
Mercer @ Clemson +19.5 153.9 88% 63–70 ✓
Memphis @ Louisville +21.2 154.2 89% 73–99 ✓
Nebraska @ Illinois +8.6 152.4 75% 83–80 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +16.6 145.6 88% 84–87 ✓
UC Davis @ Oregon +2.9 141.3 60% 62–104 ✓
Wright State @ Marshall +3.7 146.0 67% 74–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Denver +3.6 161.1 71% 105–86 ✗
Murray State @ Akron +6.3 167.7 70% 115–100 ✗
UTSA @ Colorado +22.5 152.7 90% 64–88 ✓
Hofstra @ Syracuse +6.5 138.4 70% 70–69 ✗
Marist @ Bryant -2.1 128.0 39% 82–74 ✓
Niagara @ Morgan State +2.8 133.8 63% 73–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Binghamton -5.5 140.7 26% 84–67 ✓
La Salle @ Long Island University +5.8 139.5 70% 60–70 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Villanova +15.5 136.0 88% 61–79 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian +6.1 133.1 63% 74–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ Auburn +16.1 147.6 87% 78–92 ✓
Montana State @ Oregon State +0.4 142.2 52% 57–67 ✓
Northwestern State @ California +24.3 144.7 91% 70–79 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Ohio -7.2 145.2 25% 83–88 ✗
Illinois State @ Utah State +2.0 143.2 61% 78–83 ✓
Kansas @ NC State +5.5 146.9 72% 77–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ San Diego +2.5 143.9 58% 69–78 ✓
Southern Utah @ Washington +25.1 148.9 91% 69–105 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Iowa +7.3 148.1 68% 63–75 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Richmond +9.3 153.5 78% 84–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +3.8 145.8 70% 81–73 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +25.3 154.9 90% 72–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.