Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–19 on winners spread MAE 9.0 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle +0.5 149.1 52% 82–68 ✗
Wofford @ Elon +6.1 136.9 71% 56–79 ✓
Pacific @ Illinois State +9.5 144.9 81% 61–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Santa Clara +16.1 154.2 93% 66–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.9 164.0 27% 78–84 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wichita State +5.2 145.6 68% 87–96 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah +7.8 150.8 76% 72–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +7.5 134.7 75% 89–96 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +36.3 119.1 100% 52–89 ✓
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +10.3 155.0 83% 53–74 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Southern -3.4 170.1 38% 91–93 ✗
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +32.0 140.0 100% 78–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ Ole Miss +28.2 148.6 99% 53–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +8.3 164.4 78% 80–77 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Idaho State +13.1 149.0 88% 55–71 ✓
Weber State @ North Dakota +0.4 146.9 52% 75–80 ✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +4.0 161.1 64% 70–82 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +3.2 165.3 61% 102–91 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +12.0 134.4 86% 68–75 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -4.1 143.4 36% 60–71 ✗
Colorado State @ Colorado +8.7 149.0 78% 55–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah State +22.7 147.8 98% 62–92 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +18.9 153.6 96% 89–83 ✗
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -11.3 132.9 15% 64–68 ✗
Kansas City @ Montana State +17.7 137.6 95% 62–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +4.9 168.8 67% 90–89 ✗
San Diego @ San Diego State +27.8 134.8 99% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +13.3 139.9 89% 60–81 ✓
Richmond @ Auburn +32.0 151.5 100% 54–98 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue -1.2 142.3 46% 78–83 ✗
Maine @ Fordham +0.7 139.9 52% 72–87 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall -1.2 123.7 45% 85–76 ✓
Vanderbilt @ TCU -7.5 147.8 25% 83–74 ✓
Kansas @ Missouri +1.1 158.0 54% 67–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona -3.7 129.4 37% 63–72 ✗
Wagner @ Maryland Eastern Shore -2.7 121.0 40% 63–61 ✓
Cornell @ Army +0.8 169.7 53% 103–84 ✗
Harvard @ New Hampshire -4.7 132.7 34% 72–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +26.0 139.0 99% 51–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Niagara +3.5 123.8 63% 80–62 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -6.6 142.1 28% 66–53 ✓
Howard @ Cincinnati +26.2 140.3 99% 67–84 ✓
Colgate @ Northeastern +16.4 134.5 93% 75–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Radford +9.6 146.3 81% 70–74 ✓
Ball State @ SIU Edwardsville +9.3 128.3 80% 69–82 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +13.0 146.2 88% 77–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +3.0 147.4 61% 73–83 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +4.3 141.2 65% 82–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +10.0 137.0 82% 94–101 ✓
Austin Peay @ Samford +11.1 154.9 84% 47–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Louis +17.8 151.0 95% 62–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ LSU +12.9 142.5 88% 71–80 ✓
Mercer @ Stetson -2.9 162.0 39% 89–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +2.8 143.2 60% 72–67 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +6.7 132.0 73% 66–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Memphis +18.7 149.2 96% 85–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +12.8 144.4 88% 53–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +2.1 138.7 57% 74–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi State +39.7 170.5 100% 84–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana -12.1 158.1 14% 69–58 ✓
UConn @ Texas +0.6 144.8 52% 76–65 ✗
Dartmouth @ UIC +10.9 162.1 84% 68–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +33.2 149.6 100% 58–100 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -9.0 134.4 21% 76–65 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +1.9 137.0 57% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.