You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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98–29 on winners spread MAE 8.1 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Purdue +12.5 145.9 87% 72–90 ✓
VCU @ Dayton -2.8 141.5 40% 73–68 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -7.1 144.6 26% 61–59 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +1.5 147.1 56% 68–62 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +14.2 146.5 90% 52–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's +6.6 144.3 72% 63–76 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -16.3 161.3 7% 89–81 ✓
Tennessee @ Oklahoma -6.4 137.1 28% 70–52 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +13.8 136.3 90% 52–82 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +7.7 148.0 76% 74–86 ✓
South Carolina @ Kentucky +13.2 153.8 89% 57–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa -7.0 157.6 26% 79–55 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +10.2 140.5 82% 60–71 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +1.6 130.5 56% 52–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown +11.7 127.0 86% 46–60 ✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa -4.9 166.6 33% 74–63 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -4.5 155.1 34% 70–67 ✓
Troy @ Miami (OH) -0.7 143.4 47% 62–69 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan +1.4 151.4 55% 83–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame +8.1 139.3 77% 65–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Army +0.0 150.1 50% 110–116 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette +2.3 139.7 58% 51–61 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.1 129.9 71% 58–69 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +0.3 129.9 51% 69–80 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -4.5 136.4 34% 87–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University -4.5 141.4 34% 94–81 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt +0.0 153.0 50% 78–86 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +12.0 138.0 86% 70–82 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -8.1 143.8 23% 73–81 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ball State +3.7 148.8 63% 76–77 ✓
South Alabama @ Akron +5.5 146.4 69% 67–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Eastern Michigan +2.7 144.4 60% 70–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Northern Illinois -0.9 144.1 47% 66–64 ✓
James Madison @ Toledo -0.0 154.5 50% 69–72 ✗
Georgia State @ Buffalo -2.4 158.9 42% 80–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Bowling Green +4.7 143.3 67% 53–67 ✓
Arkansas State @ Kent State -0.8 132.4 47% 75–76 ✗
App State @ Ohio +2.5 140.2 59% 72–59 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -8.9 169.5 21% 105–95 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +6.9 151.0 73% 79–72 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +4.9 136.3 67% 83–84 ✓
UCF @ Baylor +11.9 162.9 86% 76–91 ✓
Miami @ Louisville +20.8 160.1 97% 78–88 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois -0.6 157.4 48% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Long Island University +3.3 131.1 62% 59–62 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +1.9 138.9 57% 78–75 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +5.3 141.7 69% 68–82 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +4.1 156.9 65% 72–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -3.8 161.9 37% 103–88 ✓
Saint Francis @ Chicago State -1.4 141.1 45% 81–69 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +4.2 146.1 65% 56–76 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +8.5 154.4 78% 50–73 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -6.9 153.5 26% 78–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky -1.2 141.1 46% 81–76 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel -1.1 134.7 46% 81–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +0.8 174.0 53% 64–74 ✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia -11.0 148.9 16% 78–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -3.1 153.4 39% 74–85 ✗
Wofford @ Mercer -0.6 152.0 48% 77–66 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +11.2 143.4 85% 76–75 ✗
Siena @ Rider -3.1 138.6 39% 59–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State -3.6 125.3 37% 76–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.5 138.6 38% 82–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +0.2 146.6 51% 67–77 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +3.9 144.4 64% 71–69 ✗
Tulane @ North Texas +9.9 122.8 82% 66–76 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +3.8 148.6 64% 78–82 ✓
Providence @ Butler +4.6 144.7 66% 81–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +0.7 141.0 53% 60–77 ✓
Canisius @ Merrimack +16.1 132.3 93% 51–69 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +8.1 151.7 77% 86–95 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +2.5 145.8 59% 67–64 ✗
Rice @ Charlotte -1.6 139.6 44% 75–78 ✗
Florida @ Auburn +9.2 157.3 80% 90–81 ✗
Houston @ Colorado -18.0 131.5 5% 69–59 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +2.7 162.2 60% 78–82 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +13.1 141.7 88% 65–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +3.5 161.3 62% 66–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +9.1 139.6 80% 67–82 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -0.6 149.1 48% 74–56 ✓
UNLV @ Wyoming -0.7 132.2 47% 68–57 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -17.2 145.2 6% 88–53 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +25.6 137.9 99% 44–92 ✓
Penn State @ UCLA +8.6 143.6 78% 54–78 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +12.2 154.3 87% 60–79 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +7.1 138.8 74% 84–75 ✗
Towson @ Monmouth -2.2 135.2 42% 73–67 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +12.0 129.6 86% 80–75 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -8.2 158.3 23% 83–58 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +14.7 129.7 91% 56–81 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver -11.5 155.3 15% 79–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +19.2 137.8 96% 70–74 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State -0.3 151.7 49% 59–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +7.6 139.9 76% 54–59 ✓
Sam Houston @ Liberty +13.4 147.0 89% 61–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +6.7 139.0 73% 77–67 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian +9.3 147.7 80% 68–81 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +4.4 148.8 65% 72–85 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +9.4 137.9 80% 70–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +9.1 151.7 80% 76–84 ✓
Texas State @ Central Michigan +1.8 143.5 56% 70–85 ✓
Utah @ West Virginia +7.8 136.9 76% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ California -1.1 140.4 46% 76–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Belmont +8.8 155.9 79% 68–85 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -11.1 149.1 16% 81–68 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +16.0 131.9 93% 50–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +9.4 139.7 80% 76–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +0.4 145.4 51% 67–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -2.1 164.2 43% 84–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +7.7 138.4 76% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +0.7 151.0 52% 76–75 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +3.7 147.6 63% 83–85 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +2.5 131.2 59% 61–75 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M -3.3 149.8 38% 85–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Georgia +2.3 143.4 58% 76–75 ✗
Illinois @ Minnesota -10.8 146.5 16% 95–74 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati -0.6 138.6 48% 66–84 ✗
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +6.4 144.6 72% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne +1.1 134.0 54% 56–69 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +14.7 140.3 91% 81–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +5.2 142.9 68% 65–68 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin -3.8 136.3 37% 64–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word +0.4 141.4 51% 71–66 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +3.3 147.4 62% 83–88 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +12.3 153.7 87% 86–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +4.6 146.4 66% 69–80 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -8.9 136.7 21% 71–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.