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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–16 on winners spread MAE 9.4 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Creighton +20.0 143.5 90% 56–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne +13.3 142.9 85% 74–93 ✓
Bellarmine @ Marshall +7.9 146.3 76% 62–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +7.5 145.5 77% 58–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +4.4 140.8 64% 73–65 ✗
Siena @ UAlbany +5.8 144.9 67% 60–70 ✓
Hofstra @ Massachusetts +6.8 145.9 70% 75–71 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ VCU +15.1 133.2 87% 57–83 ✓
North Carolina Central @ William & Mary +3.8 145.7 67% 78–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Drake +13.9 132.7 85% 61–63 ✓
James Madison @ Towson +3.1 142.0 66% 63–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hampton +0.9 134.1 51% 67–58 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Tennessee State — — — 71–81 —
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +8.8 141.6 79% 60–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Sacramento State +2.4 133.3 57% 79–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Louis +1.9 136.8 59% 71–77 ✓
Omaha @ Southern Utah +6.0 146.7 71% 73–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Wyoming +7.7 140.2 74% 69–86 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.5 148.8 50% 56–74 ✓
Seattle U @ UC San Diego +9.2 142.6 78% 84–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ Nevada +15.9 147.8 87% 59–85 ✓
Chicago State @ San Francisco +23.7 148.5 91% 37–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +19.4 142.9 90% 62–80 ✓
New Mexico @ St. John's +6.4 154.7 69% 71–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ William & Mary -2.1 156.9 37% 87–102 ✗
Canisius @ Western Michigan +4.2 138.1 61% 69–92 ✓
Stonehill @ Lindenwood -5.8 132.2 28% 74–75 ✗
Campbell @ Navy +4.6 142.6 66% 86–66 ✗
Princeton @ Merrimack +5.3 132.2 67% 68–57 ✗
Nebraska @ Saint Mary's -2.4 140.1 41% 74–77 ✗
Clemson @ Boise State +8.8 144.3 72% 71–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ The Citadel +7.6 138.3 75% 82–73 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Coastal Carolina +6.3 132.7 72% 71–53 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.3 149.4 51% 82–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Miami +25.1 143.8 91% 63–93 ✓
Harvard @ Colorado +16.8 141.2 88% 66–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Winthrop +8.3 143.6 78% 75–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee +18.7 139.2 88% 68–103 ✓
Texas Southern @ Samford +12.8 151.4 86% 82–97 ✓
Chattanooga @ Southeast Missouri State +2.8 140.0 61% 87–82 ✗
Lipscomb @ Western Kentucky +3.7 146.0 65% 61–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross +11.1 143.4 83% 72–74 ✓
Montana State @ Denver +3.6 140.8 64% 78–79 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Robert Morris +12.1 139.4 87% 62–73 ✓
Utah @ Mississippi State +1.3 154.7 53% 73–78 ✓
Liberty @ Charleston +5.8 146.7 74% 68–47 ✗
UC Davis @ Stanford +15.1 149.1 87% 65–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ San José State -8.7 143.7 20% 64–59 ✓
Troy @ Oregon +10.1 140.0 80% 61–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Lamar +2.9 159.8 62% 85–72 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown +6.6 140.8 71% 70–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.