Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–19 on winners spread MAE 10.3 87 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Purdue +4.9 149.8 67% 78–87 ✓
Nicholls @ Cincinnati +18.5 145.2 88% 49–86 ✓
Elon @ Gardner-Webb +7.9 149.6 79% 79–80 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Old Dominion +1.2 155.6 51% 71–73 ✓
Tulane @ Furman +7.7 142.8 77% 67–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charleston +4.2 162.0 69% 116–119 ✓
Belmont @ Air Force -1.6 134.5 40% 79–71 ✓
Lindenwood @ Robert Morris +12.1 144.1 87% 53–67 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +0.5 146.5 53% 55–58 ✓
West Georgia @ South Florida +6.9 145.7 76% 55–74 ✓
Army @ Marist +6.3 144.0 73% 88–91 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +13.1 138.6 85% 58–76 ✓
UAB @ High Point +12.8 148.4 85% 65–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ South Carolina Upstate -0.0 161.6 47% 89–85 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Princeton +8.3 148.6 78% 73–68 ✗
Fordham @ Manhattan +2.4 139.0 59% 76–78 ✓
Temple @ Boston College -0.6 143.1 44% 69–72 ✗
Vermont @ Iona +3.8 131.4 61% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Butler +2.1 147.6 52% 70–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia Southern +5.1 145.1 70% 75–80 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Penn State +9.0 146.3 79% 64–86 ✓
American University @ North Carolina +10.1 140.5 81% 55–107 ✓
Marquette @ Maryland +8.2 135.7 75% 78–74 ✗
Ohio @ Memphis +15.1 153.2 88% 70–94 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern +24.9 147.5 91% 58–67 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +2.0 156.5 50% 77–69 ✗
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh +11.5 143.4 83% 62–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +4.3 139.0 67% 86–69 ✗
Washington State @ Iowa -1.7 155.5 43% 66–76 ✗
Samford @ North Alabama +13.4 152.7 86% 97–96 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Gonzaga +17.3 157.3 88% 54–113 ✓
Arizona @ Wisconsin +0.7 145.6 56% 88–103 ✓
Ohio State @ Texas A&M +3.6 136.8 56% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ DePaul +19.9 145.4 88% 58–84 ✓
Long Island University @ California Baptist +6.0 140.1 68% 77–90 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Oregon State +18.3 133.0 88% 51–70 ✓
Lehigh @ UCLA +19.0 132.6 88% 45–85 ✓
NJIT @ Morgan State +12.4 137.3 86% 69–81 ✓
Presbyterian @ Kennesaw State +4.5 150.4 68% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ Duke +20.9 142.7 90% 35–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ VMI +7.2 139.6 76% 69–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +6.9 145.5 76% 71–81 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Columbia +8.5 139.3 80% 63–77 ✓
Richmond @ Bucknell +10.9 141.6 85% 76–80 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +5.4 117.5 68% 28–54 ✓
Wake Forest @ Xavier +8.0 142.9 73% 60–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Syracuse +1.5 139.7 53% 95–104 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University +3.6 141.8 63% 50–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Longwood +6.7 140.4 70% 62–64 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgetown +3.9 149.0 65% 84–63 ✗
Tulsa @ Missouri State +3.8 147.1 64% 106–111 ✓
Radford @ Evansville +7.0 148.7 75% 92–81 ✗
Saint Peter's @ UMBC +1.4 142.6 53% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.1 142.5 67% 62–75 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Western Illinois +5.9 132.4 71% 61–63 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +13.4 142.6 85% 94–84 ✗
Stetson @ Oklahoma +19.3 142.4 89% 64–85 ✓
La Salle @ Drexel +5.2 133.2 64% 71–68 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tennessee Tech +1.7 153.5 60% 83–58 ✗
South Carolina @ Indiana +9.3 137.9 78% 71–87 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Arkansas State +9.2 138.1 80% 49–59 ✓
Northwestern State @ Rice +5.9 132.1 68% 75–77 ✓
Jackson State @ Vanderbilt +23.2 147.2 91% 81–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Cleveland State +0.3 133.5 47% 63–71 ✓
Idaho State @ San Diego -0.0 132.2 42% 78–66 ✓
Idaho @ BYU +20.2 147.5 90% 71–95 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Canisius -3.4 141.3 36% 76–58 ✓
Texas State @ Abilene Christian -6.5 134.2 26% 60–72 ✗
Colorado State @ Ole Miss +2.2 138.3 59% 69–84 ✓
Mercer @ South Alabama +11.7 138.1 86% 66–75 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +13.5 143.8 85% 88–67 ✗
Toledo @ Detroit Mercy -3.9 154.6 33% 82–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +21.6 149.9 91% 52–71 ✓
George Mason @ East Carolina +1.8 134.2 56% 77–78 ✓
Little Rock @ UTSA +6.9 144.8 75% 81–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Incarnate Word +13.3 154.6 87% 64–92 ✓
Yale @ Minnesota +3.8 138.6 66% 56–59 ✓
New Hampshire @ Sacred Heart +5.2 145.0 73% 63–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Davidson +12.8 154.5 86% 70–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Winthrop +5.2 146.6 71% 89–87 ✗
Green Bay @ Providence +10.6 140.5 81% 65–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas +27.2 144.9 91% 43–89 ✓
Portland @ Long Beach State +10.4 140.8 84% 63–61 ✗
Oakland @ Kansas +18.2 134.6 89% 57–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern -1.5 138.2 43% 62–80 ✗
Bowling Green @ Michigan State +18.1 143.8 88% 72–86 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +0.7 150.3 51% 74–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.