They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–17 on winners spread MAE 10.7 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ Florida State +20.8 152.2 90% 49–96 ✓
La Salle @ High Point +13.1 144.5 87% 72–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +14.2 148.2 88% 72–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Drexel +5.8 140.2 68% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Jackson State -8.3 133.3 21% 82–72 ✓
Tulsa @ Western Kentucky -4.0 157.1 36% 82–81 ✓
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +14.1 147.1 88% 54–78 ✓
Wisconsin @ Villanova +3.0 147.0 60% 66–76 ✓
Alcorn State @ Baylor +23.8 159.4 91% 56–113 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU +22.8 142.3 90% 65–78 ✓
Belmont @ UC Irvine -0.2 137.3 50% 84–58 ✓
Abilene Christian @ BYU +24.6 142.2 91% 67–85 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Saint Mary's +11.5 147.1 85% 75–88 ✓
San Diego @ UC San Diego +18.0 149.4 90% 82–80 ✗
North Alabama @ Loyola Marymount +7.8 132.9 78% 57–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ UCLA +16.0 153.9 88% 87–108 ✓
Morgan State @ California +22.7 149.4 91% 50–97 ✓
Washington @ Seattle U +1.1 142.3 55% 66–70 ✓
Oakland @ Michigan State +13.8 149.0 86% 70–79 ✓
Montana @ Louisville +25.5 159.0 91% 54–94 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas State +19.5 161.5 90% 76–106 ✓
St. John's @ Kentucky +0.2 147.9 47% 66–78 ✓
Liberty @ Dayton +10.0 141.7 82% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Youngstown State +6.8 140.9 75% 65–74 ✓
Chicago State @ Indiana +26.3 149.3 91% 58–78 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +13.3 148.6 88% 81–92 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -0.8 146.1 48% 88–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -11.4 143.4 14% 79–70 ✓
Georgia State @ App State +10.5 133.6 84% 70–63 ✗
Colorado State @ Utah State +6.7 145.8 74% 58–100 ✓
Howard @ UNC Wilmington +15.1 137.1 88% 67–66 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central -0.2 142.3 47% 74–72 ✓
Lafayette @ Georgia Tech +12.2 140.3 86% 81–95 ✓
Iona @ Vermont +3.1 152.9 65% 83–78 ✗
Binghamton @ Mercyhurst +11.1 131.9 85% 61–82 ✓
Elon @ Virginia Tech +12.8 158.9 88% 81–82 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -12.3 140.4 15% 86–77 ✓
Kent State @ Massachusetts +3.2 159.6 66% 69–59 ✗
Holy Cross @ Harvard +6.0 134.4 74% 53–81 ✓
Marshall @ Troy +2.1 156.1 62% 63–70 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +4.1 140.1 67% 76–74 ✗
Denver @ Northern Colorado +12.7 163.0 87% 86–79 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +5.1 143.2 70% 73–74 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe +1.4 133.4 54% 76–62 ✗
North Carolina @ Ohio State -3.5 144.4 36% 71–70 ✓
South Alabama @ Texas State -1.2 138.8 44% 65–67 ✗
Memphis @ Mississippi State +3.8 146.7 66% 66–71 ✓
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +16.3 134.9 89% 81–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming +10.4 139.5 83% 82–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Butler +2.4 153.7 60% 58–61 ✓
Northeastern @ Syracuse +12.2 137.1 86% 83–91 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio -4.0 144.4 35% 68–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +2.8 138.1 65% 86–62 ✗
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +1.6 149.1 58% 93–86 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +3.4 144.9 69% 91–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana -0.1 139.5 44% 64–60 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UCF +16.8 157.0 89% 80–102 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Santa Clara +15.9 147.5 87% 80–78 ✗
Mercer @ Washington State +2.3 141.7 59% 78–84 ✓
Long Island University @ Florida International +4.8 151.4 69% 79–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern +3.0 150.0 65% 92–96 ✓
Houston @ Arkansas +0.0 139.0 52% 94–85 ✗
Maryland @ Virginia +18.1 154.1 90% 72–80 ✓
The Citadel @ Richmond +21.2 144.3 91% 56–80 ✓
Bucknell @ Iowa +23.6 133.8 91% 39–94 ✓
Auburn @ Purdue +7.1 150.4 73% 60–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.