And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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77–41 on winners spread MAE 8.3 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Villanova -1.6 138.7 41% 66–81 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona -0.1 149.0 54% 60–65 ✗
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -1.1 143.8 49% 72–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +5.3 149.7 70% 61–86 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +14.1 159.8 87% 88–92 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +7.2 140.7 79% 71–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania -3.1 146.5 35% 75–88 ✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy -6.8 134.9 23% 73–65 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.4 151.1 68% 66–80 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.3 147.0 69% 80–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +12.0 143.8 88% 85–94 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +6.7 137.4 75% 60–94 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +3.6 129.8 68% 58–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +5.6 137.9 72% 60–59 ✗
Fairfield @ Rider +4.3 137.0 65% 69–49 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +11.7 131.5 88% 81–89 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +3.6 149.1 63% 75–62 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) +0.7 144.9 56% 92–96 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +0.8 146.9 56% 84–74 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -0.6 131.7 43% 77–69 ✓
Oregon @ Wisconsin +8.7 152.2 78% 77–73 ✗
Florida State @ Louisville +13.4 147.7 88% 81–89 ✓
TCU @ Cincinnati +5.9 134.4 68% 63–75 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +8.7 151.9 78% 91–95 ✓
Charleston @ Drexel -0.3 143.1 46% 55–64 ✗
VMI @ Furman +11.1 140.8 85% 71–75 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Joseph's +12.1 138.6 87% 62–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +10.6 138.8 85% 51–73 ✓
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma -1.0 149.8 44% 87–93 ✗
Marshall @ App State +5.0 134.5 70% 69–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan -1.6 148.2 45% 86–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +7.5 130.9 79% 59–68 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +3.1 156.5 69% 82–87 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -7.3 154.1 26% 90–67 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +8.3 153.1 76% 79–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Rice +6.7 142.0 78% 50–71 ✓
Wake Forest @ NC State -1.8 138.9 41% 73–85 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College -2.0 148.6 42% 54–69 ✗
Davidson @ Fordham -1.8 147.6 46% 80–69 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +1.4 140.9 53% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis -0.3 147.3 54% 80–85 ✗
Wagner @ Chicago State -0.4 128.8 36% 64–52 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -2.3 134.8 40% 69–71 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -2.4 140.2 44% 70–83 ✗
Towson @ Campbell +1.4 133.0 51% 76–67 ✗
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +2.5 141.7 64% 72–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.7 155.9 33% 77–79 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -4.1 140.2 34% 78–61 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.6 137.4 62% 73–68 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +16.2 143.3 90% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +0.3 150.6 53% 74–77 ✓
Florida International @ Liberty +16.3 135.8 87% 45–58 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -3.2 143.4 36% 72–76 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Louis +2.9 147.4 62% 66–81 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State +10.9 149.3 84% 66–80 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +8.6 141.3 79% 77–82 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -0.8 142.5 43% 69–72 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +18.2 147.3 90% 70–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +15.8 155.1 89% 72–93 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +5.2 149.8 75% 70–74 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +1.4 153.1 57% 72–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +1.9 131.4 48% 67–62 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +15.5 149.7 88% 70–82 ✓
Clemson @ SMU +1.6 148.5 58% 79–69 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +14.3 146.8 88% 64–96 ✓
Baylor @ Colorado -5.7 140.2 26% 74–76 ✗
Virginia @ North Carolina +10.4 141.9 79% 66–81 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +8.2 131.4 80% 54–70 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +5.5 130.8 75% 63–70 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -0.6 158.9 47% 87–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -1.9 148.8 39% 94–88 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +2.2 137.5 64% 82–73 ✗
Boston University @ American University +4.8 132.0 73% 44–48 ✓
Washington @ Iowa +6.6 160.1 75% 79–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +3.8 142.6 62% 63–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls +5.3 146.9 76% 84–93 ✓
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -2.7 139.7 37% 76–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +10.2 135.0 85% 41–67 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State -2.9 138.6 42% 58–60 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +1.9 142.9 62% 67–87 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +9.8 147.3 83% 73–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.3 143.3 55% 78–65 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +4.9 141.2 75% 55–61 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +11.3 136.8 84% 61–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +6.7 140.1 75% 80–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -14.3 140.3 13% 79–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +4.2 144.4 70% 59–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +1.9 138.2 66% 61–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +10.8 138.7 87% 65–83 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -2.7 133.2 35% 66–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +12.0 132.7 87% 66–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -3.3 147.2 40% 79–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +10.8 144.5 83% 58–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +1.3 133.1 64% 70–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -5.5 147.9 27% 68–64 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese +12.4 136.2 86% 57–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -0.5 160.2 47% 100–112 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis -3.6 146.0 35% 65–62 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego -12.8 144.1 15% 83–73 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +4.2 138.6 66% 65–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +2.4 140.0 63% 60–49 ✗
Southern @ Grambling -2.8 133.1 33% 71–64 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +10.0 153.3 71% 75–64 ✗
South Alabama @ Texas State -0.5 140.4 49% 92–93 ✗
Florida @ LSU -9.4 149.7 19% 79–65 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington +5.8 144.0 75% 52–74 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +7.9 139.3 77% 83–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Belmont +7.8 162.4 80% 75–77 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada +0.8 137.1 53% 70–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +26.0 133.2 90% 38–79 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +2.4 152.3 55% 85–81 ✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +0.2 142.8 51% 79–78 ✗
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans -4.9 137.8 36% 73–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word +2.0 133.3 59% 61–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington State -7.1 153.4 30% 109–79 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -1.6 161.9 41% 67–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +7.9 172.4 75% 83–96 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +0.3 142.8 56% 81–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.