All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–17 on winners spread MAE 8.6 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.3 147.3 49% 82–68 ✓
Wofford @ Elon +3.6 138.3 63% 56–79 ✓
Pacific @ Illinois State +8.7 142.4 84% 61–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Santa Clara +14.4 153.3 88% 66–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -5.4 154.1 33% 78–84 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wichita State +3.5 147.3 69% 87–96 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah +6.3 143.6 55% 72–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +7.9 138.6 83% 89–96 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +24.5 132.9 91% 52–89 ✓
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +8.7 145.1 81% 53–74 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Southern -1.3 158.9 60% 91–93 ✗
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +25.4 142.9 91% 78–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ Ole Miss +24.6 147.0 91% 53–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +5.5 155.9 71% 80–77 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Idaho State +10.3 141.4 83% 55–71 ✓
Weber State @ North Dakota +0.8 142.6 49% 75–80 ✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +2.2 153.0 64% 70–82 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +0.4 160.4 49% 102–91 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +8.8 133.3 84% 68–75 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -1.4 138.3 59% 60–71 ✗
Colorado State @ Colorado +7.4 146.2 79% 55–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah State +23.0 147.1 90% 62–92 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +18.7 148.3 86% 89–83 ✗
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -7.8 133.3 27% 64–68 ✗
Kansas City @ Montana State +12.1 138.9 86% 62–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +2.6 160.6 54% 90–89 ✗
San Diego @ San Diego State +22.7 139.9 90% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +12.0 138.0 87% 60–81 ✓
Richmond @ Auburn +21.0 144.9 90% 54–98 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue +1.7 142.3 70% 78–83 ✓
Maine @ Fordham +2.5 139.5 63% 72–87 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall +0.7 129.6 47% 85–76 ✗
Vanderbilt @ TCU -2.7 144.0 39% 83–74 ✓
Kansas @ Missouri +2.3 148.7 62% 67–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona -3.5 133.5 43% 63–72 ✗
Wagner @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.9 124.0 29% 63–61 ✓
Cornell @ Army -0.8 166.5 40% 103–84 ✓
Harvard @ New Hampshire -5.8 134.6 26% 72–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +16.8 139.1 90% 51–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Niagara +0.4 130.7 40% 80–62 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -5.8 134.6 33% 66–53 ✓
Howard @ Cincinnati +25.7 141.9 90% 67–84 ✓
Colgate @ Northeastern +9.6 134.7 84% 75–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Radford +8.0 139.3 81% 70–74 ✓
Ball State @ SIU Edwardsville +6.8 137.1 69% 69–82 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.8 145.3 86% 77–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +3.6 143.4 64% 73–83 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +0.9 137.9 57% 82–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +5.3 138.3 68% 94–101 ✓
Austin Peay @ Samford +14.1 144.4 85% 47–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Louis +13.9 150.8 88% 62–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ LSU +14.7 142.1 88% 71–80 ✓
Mercer @ Stetson -1.5 151.0 42% 89–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +1.0 137.2 56% 72–67 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +5.0 134.6 77% 66–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Memphis +13.1 147.8 82% 85–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +12.8 144.7 88% 53–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +2.5 137.5 60% 74–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi State +28.3 165.5 91% 84–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana -8.4 146.7 24% 69–58 ✓
UConn @ Texas +2.6 141.5 57% 76–65 ✗
Dartmouth @ UIC +8.4 152.6 82% 68–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +27.1 149.3 91% 58–100 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -6.7 135.8 28% 76–65 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +3.7 137.3 51% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.