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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–16 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morgan State
@
North Carolina A&T
|
+20.8 | 170.1 | 97% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Morehead State
|
-5.0 | 142.7 | 32% | 58–63 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Long Island University
|
+0.5 | 156.0 | 52% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Army
|
+15.2 | 167.0 | 92% | 70–84 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Western Michigan
|
-1.5 | 167.1 | 45% | 80–76 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Northern Illinois
|
-4.1 | 142.5 | 35% | 75–48 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Ball State
|
+12.6 | 152.1 | 87% | 70–59 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Richmond
|
-1.1 | 132.7 | 46% | 66–70 | ✗ |
Lafayette
@
Rhode Island
|
+23.5 | 153.1 | 98% | 72–86 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Dayton
|
+11.2 | 144.3 | 85% | 53–74 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
George Mason
|
+29.2 | 133.7 | 100% | 55–93 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Penn State
|
+19.3 | 171.2 | 96% | 89–102 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Virginia Tech
|
+7.8 | 130.8 | 76% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Iona
@
West Virginia
|
+16.8 | 147.2 | 94% | 43–86 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Kennesaw State
|
+17.3 | 145.0 | 94% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Nicholls
|
+7.2 | 133.8 | 74% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Texas A&M
|
+21.1 | 150.7 | 97% | 54–71 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Rutgers
|
+15.0 | 136.6 | 91% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
South Dakota State
|
+9.0 | 170.2 | 79% | 76–101 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Tulsa
|
+8.1 | 171.9 | 77% | 71–57 | ✗ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Murray State
|
+32.5 | 160.4 | 100% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+16.3 | 148.6 | 93% | 62–79 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Georgetown
|
-2.6 | 148.7 | 41% | 51–79 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
Gonzaga
|
+35.4 | 154.8 | 100% | 41–84 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Alabama
|
-1.9 | 165.8 | 43% | 87–100 | ✗ |
UC Davis
@
Grand Canyon
|
+0.4 | 163.4 | 51% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Cal Poly
@
Arizona State
|
+12.1 | 150.4 | 86% | 89–93 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+26.4 | 152.8 | 99% | 79–76 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
UNLV
|
+11.9 | 162.7 | 86% | 59–80 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Fresno State
|
+18.2 | 150.6 | 95% | 83–94 | ✓ |
San José State
@
USC
|
+17.2 | 139.2 | 94% | 68–82 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Stanford
|
+13.7 | 145.6 | 89% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
California Baptist
|
-0.7 | 160.8 | 48% | 79–68 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
UCLA
|
+15.9 | 119.3 | 93% | 70–84 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
UIC
|
+6.8 | 161.1 | 73% | 99–81 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+4.1 | 156.7 | 65% | 81–83 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Drake
|
-9.7 | 150.8 | 19% | 69–80 | ✗ |
La Salle
@
UC San Diego
|
-6.0 | 141.5 | 29% | 67–72 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+6.8 | 186.0 | 73% | 78–86 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Portland
|
-6.3 | 141.9 | 28% | 74–68 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
Jacksonville State
|
+4.2 | 145.9 | 65% | 78–86 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Monmouth
|
-5.4 | 159.1 | 31% | 72–62 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
VCU
|
+7.3 | 108.5 | 75% | 69–66 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
Texas State
|
-2.6 | 142.4 | 41% | 82–68 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Cornell
|
+10.7 | 148.3 | 83% | 86–76 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Stetson
|
-16.5 | 157.4 | 7% | 103–78 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Indiana
|
+18.2 | 146.0 | 95% | 58–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.