Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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96–28 on winners spread MAE 9.3 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Canisius -6.3 149.1 24% 77–72 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +14.3 139.3 88% 56–80 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -1.5 146.6 43% 73–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +9.8 154.5 83% 62–90 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +6.7 135.0 77% 64–69 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart +0.6 140.0 49% 54–67 ✓
Rider @ Merrimack +8.2 129.5 76% 83–78 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield -2.2 138.1 38% 62–69 ✗
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +1.8 139.6 59% 61–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -14.8 146.1 13% 94–67 ✓
UCLA @ Purdue +4.8 139.6 69% 66–76 ✓
James Madison @ Texas State +0.8 146.5 52% 93–102 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +2.9 152.0 65% 75–76 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -7.9 141.7 21% 70–58 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama +11.7 135.0 87% 42–65 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +6.2 150.2 74% 57–68 ✓
App State @ Marshall +2.0 132.9 60% 57–75 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +3.9 151.8 68% 72–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV +1.5 133.3 56% 55–68 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia -6.7 134.4 26% 71–58 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State -4.2 151.3 31% 68–64 ✓
Miami @ North Carolina +16.5 163.4 89% 73–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +2.3 143.5 62% 95–101 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham -7.0 146.6 23% 90–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +1.7 138.7 60% 67–59 ✗
UConn @ Providence -3.9 147.0 33% 75–63 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +5.6 143.8 72% 70–80 ✓
Auburn @ Kentucky -4.2 167.6 31% 94–78 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +2.6 139.7 61% 89–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Boston University +1.3 131.9 58% 64–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +10.4 145.4 84% 71–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +4.3 149.7 67% 53–79 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -1.5 138.8 41% 79–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +0.2 143.7 52% 79–88 ✓
Arkansas @ South Carolina -2.3 141.3 40% 53–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -7.2 148.2 23% 91–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel -12.0 133.3 14% 81–66 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +1.7 156.0 61% 66–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +1.5 147.4 56% 78–73 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -5.7 156.7 26% 83–66 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +4.2 144.7 68% 57–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +9.1 141.2 83% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ Tulsa -2.8 139.7 38% 79–77 ✓
George Mason @ Duquesne -3.1 130.6 33% 68–85 ✗
Richmond @ Dayton +12.9 142.2 88% 64–74 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +20.1 145.4 91% 71–92 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -3.2 143.3 37% 94–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +8.2 133.8 77% 67–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine +0.6 144.4 51% 80–72 ✗
UAlbany @ NJIT -4.3 140.8 28% 86–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +8.1 129.1 79% 49–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +4.2 134.3 69% 61–71 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +2.3 146.7 62% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Ole Miss +6.6 151.1 75% 84–87 ✓
Furman @ Wofford +1.5 141.5 59% 78–75 ✗
Ball State @ Bowling Green +0.7 145.0 52% 52–61 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -3.9 134.2 29% 84–79 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +10.3 152.5 84% 57–80 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +18.7 135.4 91% 61–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State +1.4 146.7 57% 88–91 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -2.4 151.3 41% 84–91 ✗
NC State @ Georgia Tech +3.5 140.9 69% 62–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +3.6 141.6 64% 70–59 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -8.9 146.7 19% 62–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M -3.1 133.8 35% 75–68 ✓
LSU @ Mississippi State +9.2 150.5 81% 69–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +10.3 146.3 84% 52–94 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +4.8 154.5 65% 76–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +4.2 159.7 70% 90–103 ✓
UCF @ TCU +4.4 147.2 69% 78–89 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +2.2 141.0 58% 67–98 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.1 147.9 32% 75–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +1.6 149.7 57% 66–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State +2.7 142.9 63% 52–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +4.4 135.2 69% 68–81 ✓
Yale @ Harvard -10.6 145.0 17% 69–74 ✗
USC @ Oregon +8.2 151.2 80% 61–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.3 134.3 55% 74–55 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +2.8 141.9 61% 58–78 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -6.1 132.4 26% 87–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +13.1 144.6 88% 67–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +2.0 147.4 59% 57–68 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.0 132.2 71% 72–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +12.8 141.6 88% 59–100 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.6 143.9 54% 100–108 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +4.1 145.1 67% 76–74 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP +1.1 145.3 52% 76–75 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +12.6 129.9 86% 64–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.6 141.7 87% 79–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +9.3 142.4 83% 55–71 ✓
Le Moyne @ Stonehill +6.3 147.0 73% 79–85 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +2.6 147.1 60% 61–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +4.0 130.6 68% 56–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +9.9 149.5 83% 69–81 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -5.2 152.9 28% 74–87 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +8.1 147.0 79% 69–74 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +4.3 135.3 67% 59–47 ✗
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +2.6 135.7 61% 65–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -5.5 130.7 26% 58–73 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +0.3 153.4 56% 68–72 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -1.4 149.6 46% 68–73 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho +4.4 141.1 67% 79–81 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +2.2 140.8 60% 76–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington -0.3 142.8 50% 78–54 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +2.5 158.5 64% 72–98 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +5.3 165.1 70% 79–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -3.5 145.3 33% 74–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +6.8 142.1 77% 71–74 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -0.7 139.8 46% 69–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.8 142.1 64% 54–68 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +0.8 140.8 53% 90–66 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley +10.6 151.1 85% 78–88 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -1.3 160.4 45% 93–97 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville +9.0 149.2 82% 68–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin -0.5 138.7 49% 94–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +0.3 151.1 52% 88–91 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +8.5 140.2 81% 60–71 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M +2.2 133.7 59% 68–73 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +4.0 152.4 66% 92–87 ✗
Indiana @ Washington -2.6 146.8 42% 78–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -7.7 122.1 21% 55–48 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston +6.2 143.2 76% 65–87 ✓
Elon @ Stony Brook -6.2 136.9 25% 66–71 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +3.0 136.9 65% 47–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.