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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–11 on winners spread MAE 9.7 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Santa Clara @ Saint Louis -2.7 159.1 40% 70–71 ✗
Georgetown @ Dayton +0.3 149.3 51% 79–84 ✓
Duke @ Arkansas -16.7 159.4 6% 80–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Colorado State -3.0 147.9 39% 70–76 ✗
Stanford @ Minnesota -2.5 144.8 41% 72–68 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Northwestern +9.6 160.4 81% 86–81 ✗
Virginia Tech @ VCU +3.2 153.1 61% 68–86 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Purdue +32.7 139.4 100% 62–109 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Gardner-Webb -9.5 142.3 19% 76–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Wake Forest +19.0 148.5 96% 73–86 ✓
Illinois @ UConn -1.2 154.2 46% 61–74 ✗
Richmond @ Charlotte -5.9 152.3 30% 71–66 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Vanderbilt +2.1 158.7 58% 71–96 ✓
Longwood @ Siena +9.8 156.6 81% 63–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Nevada -3.1 149.5 39% 65–81 ✗
Indiana State @ Alcorn State -10.8 149.4 16% 74–81 ✗
Cleveland State @ Missouri +31.4 178.9 100% 59–86 ✓
Texas State @ Seattle U +11.8 136.8 86% 52–66 ✓
Southern Utah @ Robert Morris +23.3 165.6 98% 54–61 ✓
Oklahoma @ Marquette -6.2 164.7 29% 75–74 ✓
Monmouth @ Ball State -9.8 132.9 19% 80–73 ✓
Hofstra @ La Salle -7.9 143.8 24% 63–58 ✓
Wright State @ Butler +14.5 146.2 91% 69–94 ✓
Providence @ Florida +10.8 173.7 84% 78–90 ✓
Furman @ Illinois State +7.7 136.2 76% 65–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Arkansas State +1.1 154.9 54% 80–85 ✓
Nicholls @ Tulane +4.4 155.2 66% 72–82 ✓
Chicago State @ Youngstown State +15.6 153.2 92% 64–87 ✓
Navy @ UNC Wilmington +4.8 138.9 67% 57–87 ✓
Maine @ American University +9.7 137.2 81% 61–74 ✓
NJIT @ Eastern Michigan +16.6 136.4 93% 55–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Davidson +10.7 145.2 84% 74–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina +17.3 159.1 94% 62–74 ✓
Queens University @ Virginia +18.6 166.6 95% 69–94 ✓
Colorado State @ South Florida +3.7 171.3 63% 83–68 ✗
Washington @ Colorado -1.6 160.4 44% 68–81 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Lehigh -7.1 159.8 26% 72–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Lafayette +0.7 160.0 53% 76–63 ✗
Merrimack @ Pennsylvania +11.1 152.1 84% 65–77 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida State +11.7 170.2 86% 95–59 ✗
Wisconsin @ TCU -3.0 159.5 39% 63–74 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Xavier +11.2 140.0 85% 67–88 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Idaho State +4.6 153.3 66% 50–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.