Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–15 on winners spread MAE 10.4 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T +12.1 156.3 85% 83–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Morehead State -3.2 138.1 33% 58–63 ✗
Columbia @ Long Island University +0.1 146.2 53% 80–72 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Army +13.5 153.5 87% 70–84 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Michigan -1.0 152.7 42% 80–76 ✓
Elon @ Northern Illinois -1.2 142.5 49% 75–48 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ball State +5.4 149.4 71% 70–59 ✗
Maine @ Richmond +0.9 135.9 58% 66–70 ✓
Lafayette @ Rhode Island +21.7 148.7 89% 72–86 ✓
New Mexico State @ Dayton +12.3 146.0 84% 53–74 ✓
Coppin State @ George Mason +25.5 137.0 91% 55–93 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Penn State +16.6 160.4 84% 89–102 ✓
Jacksonville @ Virginia Tech +9.4 135.5 77% 74–64 ✗
Iona @ West Virginia +14.0 143.7 85% 43–86 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kennesaw State +14.5 143.6 85% 78–84 ✓
Towson @ Nicholls +4.0 136.1 64% 70–64 ✗
Southern @ Texas A&M +22.9 146.2 89% 54–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Rutgers +15.2 130.6 86% 63–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Dakota State +10.2 151.7 82% 76–101 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +9.5 155.9 69% 71–57 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Murray State +25.0 151.0 90% 61–79 ✓
Jackson State @ Western Kentucky +11.5 145.5 85% 62–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgetown +6.0 144.6 65% 51–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Gonzaga +33.5 148.9 90% 41–84 ✓
Illinois @ Alabama -0.8 158.5 49% 87–100 ✗
UC Davis @ Grand Canyon +3.0 156.2 56% 75–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Arizona State +12.3 151.0 85% 89–93 ✓
UTEP @ UC Santa Barbara +27.0 148.3 90% 79–76 ✗
Pepperdine @ UNLV +12.4 154.9 84% 59–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Fresno State +12.1 150.4 86% 83–94 ✓
San José State @ USC +13.3 138.2 82% 68–82 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stanford +15.0 141.8 86% 63–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ California Baptist +2.2 154.5 52% 79–68 ✗
Idaho State @ UCLA +15.1 129.9 86% 70–84 ✓
James Madison @ UIC +2.2 148.9 63% 99–81 ✗
Ohio @ Middle Tennessee +3.7 147.5 69% 81–83 ✓
Miami @ Drake -5.6 138.2 33% 69–80 ✗
La Salle @ UC San Diego -2.4 138.4 41% 67–72 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida Atlantic +0.4 163.4 58% 78–86 ✓
South Florida @ Portland -3.1 144.4 31% 74–68 ✓
East Carolina @ Jacksonville State +1.2 138.2 58% 78–86 ✓
Youngstown State @ Monmouth -4.0 151.9 31% 72–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ VCU +7.2 119.8 68% 69–66 ✗
Bradley @ Texas State -0.8 138.2 44% 82–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cornell +6.7 145.1 64% 86–76 ✗
Toledo @ Stetson -13.2 150.9 16% 103–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Indiana +18.4 146.1 87% 58–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.