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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.8 | 148.0 | 43% | 70–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 144.3 | 47% | 79–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.5 | 155.9 | 18% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 140.3 | 34% | 70–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 140.8 | 36% | 72–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 154.1 | 72% | 86–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 150.6 | 53% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+34.9 | 134.8 | 91% | 62–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 134.5 | 22% | 76–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.0 | 149.8 | 87% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 149.3 | 42% | 61–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.9 | 139.4 | 29% | 71–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 150.1 | 59% | 71–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 143.2 | 75% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 143.3 | 42% | 65–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.5 | 140.6 | 17% | 74–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+30.6 | 159.9 | 91% | 59–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 134.2 | 75% | 52–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.3 | 150.2 | 91% | 54–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 154.9 | 33% | 75–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 128.8 | 28% | 80–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 138.7 | 35% | 63–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 145.5 | 87% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 165.0 | 74% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 137.1 | 78% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 149.7 | 58% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 151.1 | 56% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 144.1 | 84% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 137.0 | 68% | 57–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 134.8 | 62% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 139.4 | 87% | 55–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 143.0 | 70% | 74–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 154.6 | 87% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.7 | 155.5 | 89% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 153.6 | 71% | 83–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 154.3 | 39% | 68–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.9 | 144.2 | 34% | 72–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 148.3 | 58% | 76–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 146.1 | 75% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 160.3 | 77% | 95–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 151.7 | 42% | 63–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 141.2 | 82% | 67–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 142.3 | 64% | 50–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.