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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–14 on winners
spread MAE 12.9
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.5 | 135.8 | 58% | 81–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+23.0 | 148.0 | 90% | 54–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 136.1 | 42% | 72–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 144.9 | 60% | 53–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 131.5 | 86% | 57–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 168.7 | 81% | 102–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 141.6 | 87% | 64–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 142.4 | 68% | 106–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.9 | 142.2 | 21% | 90–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 130.4 | 51% | 73–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.6 | 162.8 | 23% | 74–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 137.0 | 49% | 70–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 155.1 | 63% | 58–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 149.5 | 67% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 135.4 | 37% | 52–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.7 | 149.1 | 85% | 59–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+31.3 | 155.7 | 91% | 47–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 145.9 | 84% | 87–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 150.2 | 35% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 154.7 | 47% | 61–101 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.7 | 155.8 | 24% | 97–102 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.2 | 140.2 | 26% | 59–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 143.4 | 60% | 73–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 156.4 | 42% | 91–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.1 | 161.5 | 84% | 72–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 148.1 | 78% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.6 | 144.0 | 18% | 72–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 157.2 | 63% | 74–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.8 | 144.8 | 17% | 67–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 135.4 | 60% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 140.6 | 65% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 149.9 | 45% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 146.3 | 45% | 77–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 145.5 | 68% | 84–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 143.8 | 39% | 74–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 149.4 | 45% | 65–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 148.1 | 64% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 157.5 | 41% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 164.9 | 47% | 97–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 166.0 | 59% | 83–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.