You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 9.6 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Santa Clara @ Saint Louis -1.1 149.7 50% 70–71 ✗
Georgetown @ Dayton -1.2 141.5 49% 79–84 ✗
Duke @ Arkansas -11.0 150.9 19% 80–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Colorado State -2.3 143.4 36% 70–76 ✗
Stanford @ Minnesota -1.4 140.3 39% 72–68 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Northwestern +6.9 152.2 74% 86–81 ✗
Virginia Tech @ VCU +1.4 147.1 51% 68–86 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Purdue +33.3 136.8 90% 62–109 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Gardner-Webb -5.4 133.1 22% 76–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Wake Forest +17.4 145.9 87% 73–86 ✓
Illinois @ UConn -1.4 148.6 40% 61–74 ✗
Richmond @ Charlotte -4.2 142.8 28% 71–66 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Vanderbilt +1.5 150.1 52% 71–96 ✓
Longwood @ Siena +5.7 143.9 75% 63–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Nevada -2.6 143.7 38% 65–81 ✗
Indiana State @ Alcorn State -8.9 139.9 19% 74–81 ✗
Cleveland State @ Missouri +30.1 161.7 91% 59–86 ✓
Texas State @ Seattle U +6.1 135.0 75% 52–66 ✓
Southern Utah @ Robert Morris +18.9 153.0 91% 54–61 ✓
Oklahoma @ Marquette -4.8 153.5 32% 75–74 ✓
Monmouth @ Ball State -5.7 130.4 28% 80–73 ✓
Hofstra @ La Salle -3.9 140.9 37% 63–58 ✓
Wright State @ Butler +16.3 144.4 85% 69–94 ✓
Providence @ Florida +6.4 160.8 73% 78–90 ✓
Furman @ Illinois State +6.1 137.7 75% 65–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Arkansas State +1.6 147.0 57% 80–85 ✓
Nicholls @ Tulane +5.5 146.5 64% 72–82 ✓
Chicago State @ Youngstown State +12.2 145.8 83% 64–87 ✓
Navy @ UNC Wilmington +5.4 137.2 69% 57–87 ✓
Maine @ American University +6.2 135.9 55% 61–74 ✓
NJIT @ Eastern Michigan +12.2 138.4 87% 55–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Davidson +8.4 144.0 77% 74–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina +13.7 150.6 86% 62–74 ✓
Queens University @ Virginia +19.9 155.6 88% 69–94 ✓
Colorado State @ South Florida +3.8 156.0 65% 83–68 ✗
Washington @ Colorado -1.5 150.5 42% 68–81 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Lehigh -4.8 146.0 34% 72–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Lafayette +1.2 150.7 50% 76–63 ✗
Merrimack @ Pennsylvania +7.6 146.3 77% 65–77 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida State +7.4 158.0 77% 95–59 ✗
Wisconsin @ TCU -1.9 149.9 45% 63–74 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Xavier +10.0 137.7 82% 67–88 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Idaho State +3.1 143.4 65% 50–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.