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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–14 on winners
spread MAE 12.8
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.6 | 137.3 | 52% | 81–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.6 | 146.6 | 90% | 54–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 135.9 | 31% | 72–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.9 | 58% | 53–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 133.6 | 83% | 57–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 167.1 | 81% | 102–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.2 | 137.1 | 87% | 64–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 142.5 | 62% | 106–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.3 | 146.1 | 26% | 90–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 127.3 | 50% | 73–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.5 | 161.9 | 27% | 74–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 139.9 | 48% | 70–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 151.3 | 60% | 58–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 149.5 | 66% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 134.4 | 39% | 52–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 151.0 | 85% | 59–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+30.9 | 151.6 | 91% | 47–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 144.4 | 83% | 87–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 149.2 | 38% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 150.3 | 49% | 61–101 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.3 | 155.1 | 22% | 97–102 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.6 | 142.7 | 23% | 59–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 144.1 | 55% | 73–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 157.1 | 41% | 91–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 162.7 | 85% | 72–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 147.6 | 77% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.7 | 145.8 | 22% | 72–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 153.8 | 65% | 74–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.9 | 147.1 | 17% | 67–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 136.3 | 67% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 143.1 | 65% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 151.5 | 50% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 146.1 | 40% | 77–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 144.1 | 72% | 84–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 141.0 | 47% | 74–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 148.8 | 47% | 65–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 145.6 | 66% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 154.6 | 48% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 159.8 | 44% | 97–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 164.5 | 50% | 83–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.