← All models
Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–13 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morgan State
@
North Carolina A&T
|
+7.6 | 156.1 | 81% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Morehead State
|
-3.2 | 135.3 | 40% | 58–63 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Long Island University
|
-2.2 | 147.1 | 37% | 80–72 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Army
|
+11.5 | 154.5 | 86% | 70–84 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Western Michigan
|
-0.8 | 152.4 | 42% | 80–76 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Northern Illinois
|
-3.1 | 141.0 | 41% | 75–48 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Ball State
|
+4.6 | 140.1 | 68% | 70–59 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Richmond
|
+2.1 | 135.8 | 68% | 66–70 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Rhode Island
|
+17.6 | 149.4 | 89% | 72–86 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Dayton
|
+13.3 | 143.1 | 88% | 53–74 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
George Mason
|
+22.6 | 139.5 | 91% | 55–93 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Penn State
|
+14.8 | 159.5 | 86% | 89–102 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Virginia Tech
|
+9.7 | 135.5 | 81% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Iona
@
West Virginia
|
+11.1 | 143.2 | 85% | 43–86 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Kennesaw State
|
+11.0 | 140.4 | 84% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Nicholls
|
+3.6 | 136.0 | 62% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Texas A&M
|
+20.7 | 144.2 | 89% | 54–71 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Rutgers
|
+13.6 | 131.0 | 87% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
South Dakota State
|
+11.0 | 153.7 | 85% | 76–101 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Tulsa
|
+6.1 | 154.0 | 67% | 71–57 | ✗ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Murray State
|
+22.1 | 150.5 | 90% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+10.9 | 143.0 | 85% | 62–79 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Georgetown
|
+1.6 | 143.8 | 68% | 51–79 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Gonzaga
|
+24.4 | 146.5 | 90% | 41–84 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Alabama
|
-1.1 | 164.4 | 58% | 87–100 | ✗ |
UC Davis
@
Grand Canyon
|
+3.8 | 153.1 | 71% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Cal Poly
@
Arizona State
|
+13.0 | 153.4 | 87% | 89–93 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
— | — | — | 79–76 | — |
Pepperdine
@
UNLV
|
+12.0 | 151.2 | 86% | 59–80 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Fresno State
|
+12.1 | 156.3 | 87% | 83–94 | ✓ |
San José State
@
USC
|
+15.4 | 137.3 | 84% | 68–82 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Stanford
|
+13.8 | 136.5 | 88% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
California Baptist
|
+1.1 | 152.7 | 54% | 79–68 | ✗ |
Idaho State
@
UCLA
|
+14.2 | 132.5 | 86% | 70–84 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
UIC
|
+0.4 | 149.2 | 47% | 99–81 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.0 | 143.6 | 63% | 81–83 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Drake
|
-2.2 | 138.7 | 45% | 69–80 | ✗ |
La Salle
@
UC San Diego
|
-2.9 | 138.1 | 47% | 67–72 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+3.0 | 154.5 | 64% | 78–86 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Portland
|
-6.1 | 143.5 | 22% | 74–68 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
Jacksonville State
|
+1.5 | 139.4 | 58% | 78–86 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Monmouth
|
-4.6 | 149.5 | 26% | 72–62 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
VCU
|
+5.4 | 123.5 | 65% | 69–66 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
Texas State
|
-5.1 | 135.0 | 34% | 82–68 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Cornell
|
+10.0 | 143.3 | 80% | 86–76 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Stetson
|
-11.4 | 152.9 | 17% | 103–78 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Indiana
|
+12.8 | 144.6 | 85% | 58–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.