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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–22 on winners spread MAE 11.0 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Niagara @ Duke +31.9 141.0 100% 42–100 ✓
Merrimack @ Florida +25.2 154.7 99% 45–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Kentucky +24.2 157.9 99% 46–88 ✓
Mississippi State @ New Mexico +5.4 151.9 69% 78–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Western Illinois +1.3 131.7 55% 84–64 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ West Georgia +3.0 153.6 61% 64–72 ✓
Morehead State @ East Tennessee State +13.2 152.2 89% 62–77 ✓
Wake Forest @ Memphis -7.2 160.2 26% 69–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Radford -9.3 145.4 20% 81–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Siena +16.1 130.9 93% 63–73 ✓
Charleston Southern @ East Carolina +7.1 162.2 74% 77–65 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Canisius +1.5 121.1 55% 57–60 ✓
Army @ Marist +21.1 128.1 97% 65–76 ✓
Morgan State @ Old Dominion +7.0 165.0 74% 56–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart +7.3 140.8 75% 66–79 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +9.8 149.6 81% 84–68 ✗
Northern Colorado @ St. Thomas -8.8 155.1 21% 72–73 ✗
South Alabama @ UAB +13.8 144.2 90% 72–80 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas +31.7 158.5 100% 61–115 ✓
Georgia State @ South Dakota State +12.9 137.6 88% 58–105 ✓
Omaha @ LSU +27.7 165.4 99% 73–99 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tulsa +11.2 142.5 85% 75–84 ✓
Hampton @ Norfolk State +7.9 124.1 76% 60–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Texas State +10.7 130.2 83% 56–65 ✓
Evansville @ Oregon State +7.1 151.3 74% 73–69 ✗
Manhattan @ Texas A&M +14.0 158.3 90% 68–109 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Saint Louis +24.1 168.9 99% 60–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +3.5 159.5 62% 76–59 ✗
UC Riverside @ San Diego +9.8 150.4 81% 85–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Pepperdine +2.1 160.7 58% 63–60 ✗
Denver @ Colorado State +19.4 163.7 96% 83–81 ✗
Northwestern State @ Grand Canyon +22.2 156.0 98% 72–85 ✓
Samford @ New Mexico State +16.1 153.5 93% 72–81 ✓
UC Davis @ Colorado +12.0 160.8 86% 79–95 ✓
Arkansas State @ SMU +16.9 170.1 94% 69–100 ✓
Georgia @ Xavier -19.1 163.2 4% 78–77 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Fresno State -1.6 146.4 44% 76–85 ✗
Texas Tech @ Purdue +0.9 151.7 53% 56–86 ✓
Kansas State @ Nebraska +4.2 169.2 65% 85–86 ✓
Southern @ San José State +6.9 175.7 73% 66–80 ✓
Louisiana @ Santa Clara +26.0 140.4 99% 43–80 ✓
Grambling @ California Baptist +14.9 144.8 91% 59–72 ✓
Montana State @ Long Beach State -4.3 138.3 35% 78–72 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Portland +3.7 154.7 63% 85–103 ✓
Seattle U @ Stanford +8.9 159.0 79% 77–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ California +21.0 153.2 97% 67–91 ✓
Presbyterian @ UCLA +16.7 123.8 94% 46–86 ✓
Wagner @ Georgetown +12.8 147.7 88% 75–92 ✓
NJIT @ Navy +16.6 136.6 93% 70–86 ✓
Fairfield @ Le Moyne +2.4 152.3 59% 97–83 ✗
Harvard @ Boston University -4.7 147.9 33% 74–75 ✗
Long Island University @ Illinois +27.3 158.3 99% 58–98 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Saint Peter's +15.3 161.3 92% 66–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Marquette +17.5 155.1 94% 71–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State +20.0 192.3 97% 71–91 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Dayton +27.0 150.3 99% 55–74 ✓
Nicholls @ Oklahoma State +21.7 148.3 98% 81–95 ✓
Green Bay @ Massachusetts +4.2 152.9 65% 79–75 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Binghamton +2.0 128.5 57% 63–52 ✗
Mercer @ Eastern Kentucky +2.3 153.4 58% 95–83 ✗
Providence @ Penn State +6.1 179.4 71% 77–65 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Cal State Bakersfield +20.3 150.1 97% 70–86 ✓
Northeastern @ Duquesne +2.7 152.0 60% 93–86 ✗
Niagara @ Howard -5.9 126.0 30% 70–80 ✗
North Alabama @ Chattanooga +7.5 153.1 75% 57–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UIC +11.9 152.6 86% 73–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Prairie View A&M -18.9 155.4 4% 69–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Nevada +5.2 173.3 68% 64–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Lipscomb +6.5 152.4 72% 62–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Missouri State -2.8 153.6 40% 67–74 ✗
Iona @ Oregon State -4.4 163.8 34% 91–84 ✓
San Francisco @ Minnesota +1.0 130.5 53% 77–65 ✗
St. Thomas @ Cal State Fullerton -6.2 159.0 29% 80–88 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.