If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
33–15 on winners spread MAE 10.7 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ High Point +14.5 160.5 91% 80–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UL Monroe -1.4 157.9 45% 83–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota -9.4 140.2 20% 75–58 ✓
VMI @ Stetson +6.3 144.1 72% 80–99 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +17.8 143.5 95% 52–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wichita State +22.1 164.6 98% 58–75 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Richmond +25.3 162.8 99% 67–102 ✓
Coppin State @ VCU +35.2 148.3 100% 58–101 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland -4.1 156.5 35% 86–80 ✓
North Florida @ Southern Miss +9.8 169.5 81% 83–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Weber State +6.0 150.2 71% 74–73 ✗
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine -4.5 124.5 34% 70–69 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia +1.5 158.8 55% 97–94 ✗
Alabama State @ SIU Edwardsville -2.4 133.9 41% 68–83 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Miami (OH) +23.9 160.8 99% 84–111 ✓
Binghamton @ Canisius +3.4 135.4 62% 66–75 ✓
Delaware State @ Miami +33.7 144.0 100% 41–97 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Dakota +19.9 155.5 96% 81–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Drexel +3.1 146.5 61% 71–75 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +25.3 171.2 99% 53–72 ✓
West Georgia @ Georgia Tech +11.7 134.2 86% 66–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Central Arkansas -12.2 157.7 13% 65–92 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado +11.1 173.3 84% 93–97 ✓
Brown @ Maine +7.8 127.0 76% 58–53 ✗
Longwood @ Columbia +15.9 152.3 93% 70–95 ✓
Butler @ Virginia +3.3 158.5 62% 80–73 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ North Florida -2.2 165.2 42% 85–82 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Delaware -4.7 170.7 34% 79–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Monmouth +10.1 153.1 82% 70–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Western Michigan +7.8 151.4 76% 60–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -5.8 131.8 30% 68–78 ✗
Howard @ Duke +41.9 145.9 100% 56–93 ✓
Lamar @ Montana +6.6 159.0 73% 68–63 ✗
UL Monroe @ East Tennessee State +16.0 149.1 93% 55–97 ✓
St. Thomas @ Portland +1.3 147.9 55% 76–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ Wyoming +15.0 129.8 91% 67–75 ✓
South Carolina @ Northwestern +8.0 149.1 77% 77–79 ✓
Queens University @ Furman +0.9 147.7 53% 79–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Air Force +3.2 177.2 61% 85–98 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Pittsburgh +12.2 137.6 87% 83–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State -0.3 136.8 49% 42–94 ✗
McNeese @ George Washington +11.2 158.5 85% 92–86 ✗
UT Martin @ Southern Miss -4.8 151.8 33% 60–70 ✗
Yale @ Charleston -15.3 154.6 8% 74–63 ✓
Youngstown State @ UNC Greensboro -9.2 167.5 20% 62–68 ✗
Bryant @ UConn +31.1 141.4 100% 49–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ DePaul +18.1 151.8 95% 75–95 ✓
Tulane @ Boston College +10.6 133.7 83% 93–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.