You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 10.4 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ High Point +9.2 149.3 82% 80–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UL Monroe -2.7 146.5 52% 83–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota -6.1 140.7 26% 75–58 ✓
VMI @ Stetson +3.7 142.5 56% 80–99 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +11.3 136.4 82% 52–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wichita State +23.0 152.3 90% 58–75 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Richmond +26.1 151.4 91% 67–102 ✓
Coppin State @ VCU +29.7 144.6 91% 58–101 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland +1.5 151.2 57% 86–80 ✗
North Florida @ Southern Miss +8.6 152.5 79% 83–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Weber State +4.1 143.9 71% 74–73 ✗
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine -2.4 131.1 39% 70–69 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia +0.5 152.3 54% 97–94 ✗
Alabama State @ SIU Edwardsville -2.0 137.3 41% 68–83 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Miami (OH) +24.7 151.1 90% 84–111 ✓
Binghamton @ Canisius +2.9 126.3 53% 66–75 ✓
Delaware State @ Miami +30.1 138.3 91% 41–97 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Dakota +15.7 149.4 89% 81–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Drexel +3.9 144.7 65% 71–75 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +27.0 157.1 90% 53–72 ✓
West Georgia @ Georgia Tech +9.4 137.1 78% 66–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Central Arkansas -7.5 149.5 25% 65–92 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado +6.3 156.9 70% 93–97 ✓
Brown @ Maine +6.3 127.3 70% 58–53 ✗
Longwood @ Columbia +11.3 145.9 84% 70–95 ✓
Butler @ Virginia +2.4 151.1 50% 80–73 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ North Florida -1.5 152.5 45% 85–82 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Delaware -0.7 155.0 40% 79–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Monmouth +5.3 141.3 75% 70–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Western Michigan +8.1 146.3 75% 60–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -3.5 132.3 36% 68–78 ✗
Howard @ Duke +33.9 144.8 90% 56–93 ✓
Lamar @ Montana +5.2 149.7 62% 68–63 ✗
UL Monroe @ East Tennessee State +15.2 141.7 86% 55–97 ✓
St. Thomas @ Portland +2.9 146.0 58% 76–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ Wyoming +15.5 133.3 86% 67–75 ✓
South Carolina @ Northwestern +4.5 145.3 64% 77–79 ✓
Queens University @ Furman +1.3 142.7 53% 79–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Air Force +4.0 150.8 57% 85–98 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Pittsburgh +13.3 136.8 85% 83–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State +1.2 141.0 55% 42–94 ✓
McNeese @ George Washington +8.1 149.4 78% 92–86 ✗
UT Martin @ Southern Miss +0.2 144.7 45% 60–70 ✓
Yale @ Charleston -12.5 144.3 19% 74–63 ✓
Youngstown State @ UNC Greensboro -6.3 152.0 24% 62–68 ✗
Bryant @ UConn +30.5 139.6 91% 49–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ DePaul +17.6 147.6 88% 75–95 ✓
Tulane @ Boston College +7.4 131.8 76% 93–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.