And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–15 on winners spread MAE 10.7 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +2.5 133.1 46% 78–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Marshall +10.7 139.1 82% 60–69 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee -6.1 151.7 29% 87–90 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -13.2 151.2 16% 97–59 ✓
Winthrop @ Jackson State -9.5 156.7 17% 80–62 ✓
Utah State @ Davidson +0.3 134.3 48% 94–60 ✗
Toledo @ Troy +4.3 159.2 71% 75–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Towson -5.6 132.6 27% 55–62 ✗
Stony Brook @ Pacific -1.1 142.1 42% 58–86 ✗
Bucknell @ Bowling Green +10.8 144.2 85% 66–71 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.5 150.9 57% 70–65 ✗
Massachusetts @ Oregon State -2.1 145.5 39% 73–65 ✓
Rutgers @ Tennessee +11.8 137.3 85% 60–85 ✓
Saint Francis @ Belmont +19.6 146.0 87% 57–94 ✓
UAB @ Southern Illinois -0.6 154.4 47% 81–73 ✓
Liberty @ Vermont +0.2 155.2 54% 79–73 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman +1.2 146.4 57% 69–64 ✗
Creighton @ Baylor +0.5 149.6 47% 74–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ NC State +6.1 137.2 78% 85–74 ✗
VMI @ Buffalo +13.8 147.2 86% 70–78 ✓
Green Bay @ Iona +3.1 149.4 62% 80–75 ✗
Grambling @ UC Riverside +5.6 143.3 76% 74–83 ✓
Notre Dame @ Kansas +4.9 142.1 68% 61–71 ✓
William & Mary @ UTEP -9.1 139.3 21% 74–63 ✓
Oakland @ Lamar +7.3 145.6 77% 83–68 ✗
Iowa State @ St. John's +0.3 155.6 50% 83–82 ✗
Rice @ Kennesaw State +4.4 149.8 68% 84–89 ✓
Temple @ UC San Diego +2.5 146.8 61% 76–91 ✓
USC @ Boise State -2.1 152.8 41% 70–67 ✓
George Washington @ Middle Tennessee -8.7 149.4 20% 92–79 ✓
Charleston @ Evansville -1.6 142.1 39% 78–59 ✓
Syracuse @ Houston +0.2 123.8 54% 74–78 ✓
George Mason @ Ohio -10.1 137.4 19% 92–69 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -3.0 133.7 32% 73–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Youngstown State -1.5 151.4 42% 61–67 ✗
Elon @ App State +4.0 147.3 66% 88–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.