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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–15 on winners spread MAE 10.9 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ High Point +10.2 148.3 81% 80–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UL Monroe -1.8 143.1 41% 83–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota -5.5 135.7 28% 75–58 ✓
VMI @ Stetson +3.9 140.9 65% 80–99 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +10.4 138.6 85% 52–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wichita State +19.5 152.1 90% 58–75 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Richmond +19.7 151.5 91% 67–102 ✓
Coppin State @ VCU +23.8 143.1 91% 58–101 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland +0.8 146.5 52% 86–80 ✗
North Florida @ Southern Miss +6.8 153.7 74% 83–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Weber State +3.8 140.0 67% 74–73 ✗
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine -1.7 126.8 32% 70–69 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia +1.4 147.0 57% 97–94 ✗
Alabama State @ SIU Edwardsville -1.4 132.8 42% 68–83 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Miami (OH) +17.3 152.1 90% 84–111 ✓
Binghamton @ Canisius +3.8 132.5 62% 66–75 ✓
Delaware State @ Miami +25.1 139.1 91% 41–97 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Dakota +13.3 145.3 87% 81–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Drexel +3.5 141.9 63% 71–75 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +20.9 155.7 91% 53–72 ✓
West Georgia @ Georgia Tech +8.6 133.5 76% 66–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Central Arkansas -7.7 146.6 23% 65–92 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado +7.2 154.9 75% 93–97 ✓
Brown @ Maine +5.5 128.7 67% 58–53 ✗
Longwood @ Columbia +11.6 143.1 87% 70–95 ✓
Butler @ Virginia +1.0 148.5 56% 80–73 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ North Florida -1.4 150.9 44% 85–82 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Delaware -1.7 155.2 42% 79–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Monmouth +5.4 142.1 68% 70–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Western Michigan +6.0 143.2 71% 60–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -4.1 131.5 33% 68–78 ✗
Howard @ Duke +25.1 143.8 90% 56–93 ✓
Lamar @ Montana +5.6 147.0 72% 68–63 ✗
UL Monroe @ East Tennessee State +12.9 140.9 87% 55–97 ✓
St. Thomas @ Portland +3.0 142.9 63% 76–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ Wyoming +15.8 134.2 87% 67–75 ✓
South Carolina @ Northwestern +4.7 142.5 69% 77–79 ✓
Queens University @ Furman +0.8 141.1 51% 79–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Air Force +5.0 155.1 67% 85–98 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Pittsburgh +10.7 134.2 82% 83–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State +1.8 136.0 54% 42–94 ✓
McNeese @ George Washington +6.5 147.8 76% 92–86 ✗
UT Martin @ Southern Miss -4.4 142.8 33% 60–70 ✗
Yale @ Charleston -11.5 146.0 16% 74–63 ✓
Youngstown State @ UNC Greensboro -7.7 153.3 22% 62–68 ✗
Bryant @ UConn +25.2 136.9 91% 49–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ DePaul +15.5 144.3 88% 75–95 ✓
Tulane @ Boston College +6.8 130.6 76% 93–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.