I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–14 on winners spread MAE 10.7 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +1.5 133.1 51% 78–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Marshall +9.7 139.8 82% 60–69 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee -4.8 151.8 31% 87–90 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -12.1 150.9 15% 97–59 ✓
Winthrop @ Jackson State -8.2 158.9 24% 80–62 ✓
Utah State @ Davidson +0.6 136.4 51% 94–60 ✗
Toledo @ Troy +5.2 158.4 73% 75–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Towson -6.0 132.7 25% 55–62 ✗
Stony Brook @ Pacific -1.1 140.0 45% 58–86 ✗
Bucknell @ Bowling Green +11.2 141.3 83% 66–71 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.1 148.8 58% 70–65 ✗
Massachusetts @ Oregon State -2.0 143.3 41% 73–65 ✓
Rutgers @ Tennessee +10.9 136.8 84% 60–85 ✓
Saint Francis @ Belmont +15.3 143.7 87% 57–94 ✓
UAB @ Southern Illinois -0.9 152.6 44% 81–73 ✓
Liberty @ Vermont +0.2 156.9 50% 79–73 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman +0.8 144.8 57% 69–64 ✗
Creighton @ Baylor +0.4 148.8 53% 74–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ NC State +5.6 140.2 72% 85–74 ✗
VMI @ Buffalo +12.6 147.1 86% 70–78 ✓
Green Bay @ Iona +2.5 150.1 66% 80–75 ✗
Grambling @ UC Riverside +5.0 142.7 71% 74–83 ✓
Notre Dame @ Kansas +5.6 140.1 70% 61–71 ✓
William & Mary @ UTEP -8.1 139.0 21% 74–63 ✓
Oakland @ Lamar +7.5 145.5 77% 83–68 ✗
Iowa State @ St. John's -0.4 155.4 50% 83–82 ✓
Rice @ Kennesaw State +4.1 150.3 68% 84–89 ✓
Temple @ UC San Diego +3.2 144.6 66% 76–91 ✓
USC @ Boise State -2.1 150.5 37% 70–67 ✓
George Washington @ Middle Tennessee -8.4 148.2 23% 92–79 ✓
Charleston @ Evansville -2.3 139.6 41% 78–59 ✓
Syracuse @ Houston +1.3 124.7 57% 74–78 ✓
George Mason @ Ohio -9.4 138.0 19% 92–69 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -3.2 133.5 32% 73–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Youngstown State -1.1 152.5 41% 61–67 ✗
Elon @ App State +4.2 148.4 63% 88–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.