Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–12 on winners spread MAE 10.7 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Michigan @ Louisville +19.1 150.1 90% 46–87 ✓
James Madison @ Florida International +3.5 149.9 69% 80–72 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Northern Kentucky +12.8 148.1 86% 71–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ The Citadel +3.1 160.4 61% 70–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +5.8 145.1 72% 67–80 ✓
NJIT @ Cincinnati +15.4 134.3 87% 67–94 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut +9.9 134.1 83% 106–108 ✓
Princeton @ Bradley +0.4 135.1 52% 64–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.6 153.0 83% 88–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Mississippi State +3.1 149.6 61% 78–81 ✓
Murray State @ McNeese +2.3 160.9 64% 60–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +21.5 156.0 91% 73–87 ✓
Auburn @ Oregon -6.5 145.4 27% 84–73 ✓
Yale @ Akron +1.2 152.2 56% 97–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Arkansas State +5.2 146.2 72% 63–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ Northern Arizona -2.1 143.2 40% 87–93 ✗
Radford @ SMU +24.5 152.5 91% 72–89 ✓
Long Island University @ Missouri State +3.6 140.7 64% 75–61 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Loyola Marymount -0.4 141.8 52% 76–65 ✓
UTSA @ Abilene Christian +0.3 137.3 49% 50–61 ✓
Louisiana @ UC Davis +11.3 135.4 85% 56–77 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama -6.9 155.2 26% 95–85 ✓
Denver @ Arizona +18.1 148.3 88% 73–103 ✓
San Diego State @ Michigan +5.9 150.0 74% 54–94 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas +4.6 139.0 65% 87–86 ✗
UNLV @ Maryland -0.7 160.7 50% 67–74 ✗
Stony Brook @ Bethune-Cookman +1.7 146.8 58% 61–54 ✗
Towson @ Liberty +5.3 130.3 72% 72–69 ✗
Michigan State @ East Carolina -14.5 139.4 14% 89–56 ✓
Rutgers @ Notre Dame +6.8 139.3 76% 63–68 ✓
Pacific @ Jacksonville -2.4 132.3 40% 68–53 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Delaware +0.6 142.2 53% 60–73 ✓
Tulsa @ San José State -7.6 144.9 22% 81–51 ✓
Creighton @ Iowa State +6.9 147.7 77% 60–78 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Army -3.8 138.6 34% 84–67 ✓
NC State @ Boise State -3.7 145.8 33% 81–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Vermont -0.6 150.0 49% 80–65 ✓
Samford @ Georgia State -6.3 139.6 25% 78–63 ✓
Syracuse @ Kansas +1.6 135.7 55% 60–71 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +8.3 133.3 79% 59–75 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago -12.4 130.4 14% 72–51 ✓
St. John's @ Baylor -5.6 158.6 32% 96–81 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Oral Roberts -5.7 156.9 27% 83–91 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Ohio -8.3 140.3 19% 70–58 ✓
UC San Diego @ Bradley -5.7 140.5 25% 87–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ McNeese +6.1 147.4 74% 62–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ USC +0.4 141.5 54% 81–83 ✓
Tennessee @ Houston -0.6 132.4 49% 76–73 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ North Carolina +5.8 143.3 72% 70–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ South Dakota State +6.6 149.4 77% 75–52 ✗
Drexel @ Morgan State -0.5 141.1 44% 71–66 ✓
Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +4.1 147.3 68% 75–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Abilene Christian -6.0 138.3 25% 92–58 ✓
San Diego @ California Baptist +7.2 136.1 78% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio State +19.9 142.9 90% 60–113 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.