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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–17 on winners spread MAE 10.8 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ James Madison +4.0 151.3 65% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +12.7 139.6 86% 67–82 ✓
Boston University @ Penn State +17.6 138.7 88% 87–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State +27.4 154.7 90% 59–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova +22.4 141.4 89% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Stetson -2.2 145.1 43% 79–62 ✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.1 153.5 79% 63–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine +1.6 136.1 51% 69–74 ✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore +0.5 128.3 40% 74–68 ✗
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.8 145.4 73% 77–90 ✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF +13.6 153.2 82% 91–102 ✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest +14.8 152.6 87% 51–99 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +10.0 128.3 80% 55–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +6.4 137.5 70% 68–65 ✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -0.6 143.2 43% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas +1.3 137.0 52% 60–81 ✓
Murray State @ George Washington +8.2 164.3 79% 96–95 ✗
Temple @ Princeton -5.0 143.4 33% 79–75 ✓
Kansas State @ Indiana +9.2 155.5 69% 69–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M +31.6 153.4 91% 84–120 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly +4.0 152.6 69% 84–68 ✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri +33.2 151.9 91% 66–98 ✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas +10.0 133.7 71% 71–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay +13.2 137.2 86% 59–77 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +5.1 148.3 73% 94–100 ✓
Auburn @ Michigan +2.7 157.1 59% 72–102 ✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska +10.2 155.4 77% 73–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine -3.0 139.1 45% 57–45 ✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern +3.6 147.5 64% 77–64 ✗
Oakland @ Montana +4.2 156.1 71% 95–87 ✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech +3.1 152.0 61% 68–63 ✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga +14.9 150.7 84% 61–100 ✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa +3.7 142.0 66% 69–74 ✓
UCLA @ California -2.4 137.5 40% 72–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon -1.1 143.2 46% 97–80 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +7.9 172.2 76% 76–115 ✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon +1.9 154.9 59% 58–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Troy +17.2 156.3 86% 64–74 ✓
Bowling Green @ VMI -12.6 147.6 15% 81–48 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky -7.7 163.6 28% 83–78 ✓
Towson @ UC San Diego +1.0 124.3 51% 73–87 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill +9.9 144.4 82% 75–64 ✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State +4.6 144.2 76% 64–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas Tech +11.4 151.0 82% 50–82 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +2.7 130.4 47% 59–47 ✗
Belmont @ Toledo -3.1 146.7 41% 87–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell -8.6 139.9 21% 73–71 ✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago -5.0 134.3 31% 63–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro -9.5 150.9 19% 82–71 ✓
Omaha @ Florida International +4.5 152.6 73% 61–74 ✓
App State @ Mercer +10.6 141.2 84% 67–75 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +3.7 146.5 68% 74–88 ✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky +5.3 145.3 73% 83–93 ✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.9 148.1 61% 81–73 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -6.7 160.6 27% 88–75 ✓
Liberty @ Bradley -5.6 141.9 31% 64–74 ✗
South Florida @ VCU -1.5 165.5 46% 66–78 ✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State -4.9 138.9 29% 56–43 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso +11.9 147.1 78% 64–56 ✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State +12.6 134.4 81% 58–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Houston +5.2 132.2 70% 56–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall +13.2 149.7 83% 90–67 ✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb -13.4 148.7 15% 84–51 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +7.7 130.2 73% 60–73 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa +4.1 131.5 61% 60–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice -1.9 148.7 40% 62–81 ✗
Vermont @ Princeton -6.5 146.6 28% 79–74 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan -0.9 149.1 48% 103–101 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State -3.0 155.4 33% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State -9.6 138.8 17% 75–61 ✓
Samford @ Utah Valley +4.7 147.5 74% 45–89 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force -0.8 149.8 43% 71–53 ✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State +0.9 134.0 54% 84–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.