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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–9 on winners spread MAE 9.7 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama State @ Cincinnati +22.8 147.9 90% 59–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Marshall +5.4 140.1 68% 53–82 ✓
Colgate @ UNC Wilmington +9.6 140.7 77% 72–59 ✗
Milwaukee @ UCF +8.6 152.6 81% 76–84 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +5.6 158.8 74% 72–82 ✓
Rider @ Villanova +9.6 138.2 77% 48–72 ✓
UTEP @ UNC Greensboro +0.1 132.6 54% 64–58 ✗
Utah Valley @ Samford +3.4 162.0 70% 76–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Tech +8.5 147.1 81% 67–91 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Little Rock +18.9 138.2 90% 59–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Saint Louis +5.9 153.8 74% 90–93 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Houston Christian -0.0 134.5 40% 74–71 ✓
Arizona @ Davidson -1.0 154.7 49% 104–71 ✓
Xavier @ Michigan +1.8 144.4 62% 53–78 ✓
Wyoming @ Loyola Marymount +0.6 134.5 50% 70–73 ✓
Stonehill @ Marquette +26.0 138.8 90% 59–94 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Montana -4.3 150.3 36% 75–83 ✗
Michigan State @ North Carolina +4.8 150.4 62% 94–91 ✗
SMU @ Washington State +0.2 156.7 54% 77–60 ✗
Alabama @ Rutgers -9.6 163.1 21% 95–90 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +16.9 150.2 89% 71–83 ✓
San José State @ Long Beach State -6.9 128.0 32% 82–66 ✓
Mercyhurst @ California +15.0 139.4 86% 55–81 ✓
UConn @ Dayton -2.8 148.8 36% 67–85 ✗
California Baptist @ Fresno State -0.6 148.0 46% 86–81 ✓
Houston @ Notre Dame -8.4 141.8 19% 65–54 ✓
West Virginia @ Louisville +1.4 143.1 60% 70–79 ✓
Minnesota @ Wichita State +3.7 128.5 70% 66–68 ✓
UT Arlington @ Rhode Island +8.4 155.3 81% 78–83 ✓
Gonzaga @ Indiana -10.5 150.1 19% 89–73 ✓
Florida @ Wake Forest -11.5 140.7 21% 75–58 ✓
NC State @ Purdue +2.2 141.5 57% 61–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ North Dakota State -4.9 149.9 31% 63–83 ✗
Illinois @ Arkansas -2.6 145.5 37% 90–77 ✓
Santa Clara @ TCU +4.6 143.9 70% 69–52 ✗
Arizona @ Oklahoma +0.6 151.4 57% 77–82 ✓
BYU @ Ole Miss -1.5 146.5 43% 85–96 ✗
Utah State @ St. Bonaventure -3.0 146.4 47% 72–67 ✓
Washington @ Colorado State -0.6 139.6 47% 73–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.