I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–16 on winners spread MAE 11.1 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Butler +0.2 132.9 58% 69–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UC Irvine +6.8 147.4 76% 59–76 ✓
Davidson @ Providence +3.3 141.4 68% 69–58 ✗
Northern Iowa @ North Texas +1.5 133.2 53% 48–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ USC -3.0 147.5 39% 71–36 ✓
Mississippi State @ UNLV -7.7 150.1 24% 80–58 ✓
Kent State @ Towson -2.3 128.3 42% 65–54 ✓
Arizona State @ New Mexico +1.8 152.6 57% 85–82 ✗
Providence @ Indiana +0.5 136.5 56% 73–89 ✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama +18.8 130.0 90% 65–74 ✓
Colgate @ App State -1.2 128.5 45% 50–72 ✗
Dartmouth @ Boston College +19.1 140.5 89% 88–83 ✗
Minnesota @ Wake Forest -1.5 124.7 47% 51–57 ✗
Bowling Green @ Weber State +1.2 145.8 51% 70–73 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +19.4 149.3 89% 70–89 ✓
TCU @ Colorado State -4.2 137.9 34% 72–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Troy +14.4 132.0 82% 72–68 ✗
Maine @ Elon +6.0 140.7 72% 69–56 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton -2.0 143.8 38% 65–62 ✓
VMI @ George Washington +12.0 145.6 84% 64–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Iona +3.6 131.9 76% 51–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Ohio State +5.9 146.5 67% 91–90 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia -0.0 150.8 53% 76–83 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Vanderbilt +13.2 151.5 84% 56–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Cleveland State +7.4 131.8 69% 71–69 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +4.6 141.1 63% 59–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Florida +5.1 146.0 62% 51–88 ✓
NC State @ BYU +0.7 148.3 55% 61–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ New Mexico State +5.7 138.7 71% 82–70 ✗
West Georgia @ Samford +13.0 149.5 83% 65–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ UNC Wilmington +1.5 152.1 60% 60–69 ✓
George Mason @ James Madison +4.1 148.4 65% 66–61 ✗
Holy Cross @ Virginia +6.5 131.7 73% 41–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington -1.9 139.1 39% 69–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Lafayette +2.6 141.6 60% 56–75 ✓
Navy @ Pennsylvania +4.6 149.0 59% 86–78 ✗
Indiana State @ Arkansas State +5.8 149.1 74% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Belmont +3.7 150.9 66% 74–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +7.1 148.7 77% 69–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Louisville +3.4 144.6 58% 69–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Purdue +1.9 142.5 59% 78–80 ✓
Utah State @ North Texas -4.3 140.6 31% 61–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.