I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–18 on winners spread MAE 10.0 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Florida State +23.1 140.2 87% 57–91 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +6.8 142.9 73% 78–88 ✓
VMI @ Loyola Maryland +5.3 142.8 74% 67–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.4 144.9 26% 78–76 ✓
Stanford @ Grand Canyon -7.1 148.1 24% 71–78 ✗
Wagner @ Georgetown +9.0 129.8 80% 41–66 ✓
Manhattan @ Virginia +8.5 131.3 80% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +18.3 138.7 90% 54–83 ✓
Boise State @ Boston College -6.3 146.3 29% 61–63 ✗
North Dakota State @ Samford +11.3 156.0 83% 98–103 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +1.6 146.1 56% 85–80 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Alabama +13.9 131.2 82% 64–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Iowa +27.3 160.2 91% 77–110 ✓
Long Beach State @ UTEP +4.7 135.4 63% 44–70 ✓
Iowa State @ Dayton -0.4 144.0 44% 89–84 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Belmont +6.2 142.7 69% 77–63 ✗
Kansas @ Duke +7.5 142.0 74% 75–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine +6.5 138.2 72% 72–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Montana State +7.3 142.7 76% 59–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Utah +39.1 141.2 91% 48–94 ✓
California Baptist @ SMU +6.5 153.9 78% 77–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Arizona +0.0 133.8 50% 72–68 ✗
Grambling @ Cal Poly +8.3 144.2 75% 79–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ UC Santa Barbara +11.5 151.2 83% 51–67 ✓
Southern Utah @ UCLA +16.9 139.0 86% 43–88 ✓
Notre Dame @ Rutgers -1.6 150.3 40% 84–85 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ San José State -8.6 132.2 23% 64–69 ✗
Auburn @ North Carolina -1.7 166.2 42% 85–72 ✓
Furman @ Seattle U -2.8 139.4 36% 61–56 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington State +6.9 151.6 77% 73–84 ✓
Louisville @ Indiana -0.0 144.0 52% 89–61 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +2.9 143.4 62% 69–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Detroit Mercy -14.3 142.3 13% 81–75 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +5.3 149.0 68% 69–92 ✓
SE Louisiana @ North Dakota -2.7 137.6 40% 76–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Charleston +7.8 139.2 71% 64–79 ✓
UTSA @ Merrimack -0.3 130.4 41% 76–74 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Baylor +28.5 157.3 91% 60–91 ✓
Bryant @ Chattanooga +3.0 151.9 65% 76–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +11.8 144.1 86% 54–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Youngstown State +7.4 139.5 60% 73–62 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Charlotte +6.3 144.6 72% 75–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ Tennessee Tech +0.6 139.1 50% 75–90 ✓
Gonzaga @ West Virginia -12.1 147.1 20% 78–86 ✗
Colorado @ Iowa State +1.4 143.2 59% 71–99 ✓
Tulsa @ Georgia State +1.4 146.4 54% 71–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Bethune-Cookman -4.1 139.5 35% 79–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee +30.5 136.8 91% 35–78 ✓
NJIT @ Morehead State +6.0 129.0 67% 78–69 ✗
West Georgia @ North Dakota State +3.3 138.6 62% 61–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ App State -6.1 147.1 31% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Valparaiso +10.0 138.1 82% 82–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ Air Force +3.0 131.7 44% 63–61 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon +1.3 135.4 58% 68–78 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +4.4 147.9 63% 62–54 ✗
Canisius @ Robert Morris +18.8 139.0 90% 64–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Maryland +22.1 146.7 90% 67–91 ✓
Memphis @ Auburn +2.4 155.7 63% 76–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Austin Peay +4.4 141.0 65% 68–58 ✗
Providence @ Oklahoma +1.6 130.1 66% 77–79 ✓
Ball State @ Richmond +1.7 131.3 53% 60–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Virginia Tech -3.7 139.5 32% 70–60 ✓
Tulane @ Belmont +1.9 149.8 52% 66–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Western Illinois -4.4 138.9 28% 86–75 ✓
Creighton @ Texas A&M +4.2 138.8 67% 73–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +30.0 151.8 91% 61–81 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +16.3 150.7 86% 79–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.