I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–17 on winners spread MAE 10.8 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ James Madison +3.9 150.5 65% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +12.2 142.2 86% 67–82 ✓
Boston University @ Penn State +16.3 143.7 87% 87–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State +28.6 153.7 90% 59–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova +20.8 142.3 88% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Stetson -0.7 143.7 39% 79–62 ✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.3 153.5 79% 63–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine +3.0 136.6 55% 69–74 ✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore +2.7 128.3 49% 74–68 ✗
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +6.7 145.7 66% 77–90 ✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF +14.5 152.3 85% 91–102 ✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest +14.2 153.2 87% 51–99 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +10.4 127.8 81% 55–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +6.7 137.3 74% 68–65 ✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -1.0 145.4 43% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas +1.7 136.3 55% 60–81 ✓
Murray State @ George Washington +7.2 161.9 78% 96–95 ✗
Temple @ Princeton -3.7 144.9 31% 79–75 ✓
Kansas State @ Indiana +8.1 156.6 73% 69–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M +28.9 153.4 91% 84–120 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly +4.7 151.1 71% 84–68 ✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri +31.1 150.6 91% 66–98 ✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas +7.6 135.5 68% 71–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay +13.0 139.0 83% 59–77 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +4.6 149.8 70% 94–100 ✓
Auburn @ Michigan +4.7 154.4 68% 72–102 ✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska +10.7 154.4 79% 73–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine -2.3 140.3 42% 57–45 ✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern +2.9 144.8 63% 77–64 ✗
Oakland @ Montana +5.1 159.6 73% 95–87 ✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech +1.7 150.1 57% 68–63 ✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga +15.6 145.5 85% 61–100 ✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa +3.9 144.2 66% 69–74 ✓
UCLA @ California -1.8 137.8 38% 72–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon -0.9 142.9 49% 97–80 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +8.9 169.0 78% 76–115 ✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon +1.6 152.2 58% 58–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Troy +16.7 154.3 86% 64–74 ✓
Bowling Green @ VMI -11.9 147.1 14% 81–48 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky -7.9 159.9 22% 83–78 ✓
Towson @ UC San Diego +2.0 128.5 58% 73–87 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill +10.4 144.0 80% 75–64 ✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State +4.7 144.1 69% 64–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas Tech +10.3 150.6 82% 50–82 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +2.4 134.9 39% 59–47 ✗
Belmont @ Toledo -3.7 146.3 36% 87–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell -8.6 141.6 22% 73–71 ✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago -5.7 136.1 34% 63–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro -9.7 151.5 21% 82–71 ✓
Omaha @ Florida International +4.0 151.5 69% 61–74 ✓
App State @ Mercer +12.0 140.5 84% 67–75 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +4.6 145.6 71% 74–88 ✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky +6.6 145.3 76% 83–93 ✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.3 149.3 61% 81–73 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -5.9 157.9 29% 88–75 ✓
Liberty @ Bradley -5.7 146.2 27% 64–74 ✗
South Florida @ VCU -1.6 162.5 43% 66–78 ✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State -4.5 136.1 31% 56–43 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso +11.6 144.2 77% 64–56 ✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State +12.0 134.8 79% 58–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Houston +4.6 133.5 66% 56–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall +13.7 148.5 84% 90–67 ✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb -12.6 148.2 15% 84–51 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +5.0 131.7 66% 60–73 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa +2.9 129.6 58% 60–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice -2.5 148.7 39% 62–81 ✗
Vermont @ Princeton -5.8 148.3 31% 79–74 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan -0.7 152.6 45% 103–101 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State -3.6 155.7 37% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State -9.4 140.4 21% 75–61 ✓
Samford @ Utah Valley +4.6 147.3 70% 45–89 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force -0.3 146.5 50% 71–53 ✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State +1.2 137.5 52% 84–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.