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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+20.4 | 147.3 | 91% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 139.3 | 67% | 53–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 139.9 | 78% | 72–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 149.7 | 78% | 76–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 156.5 | 71% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 138.2 | 75% | 48–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 132.6 | 48% | 64–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 158.1 | 63% | 76–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 145.2 | 79% | 67–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.5 | 138.5 | 89% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 156.4 | 70% | 90–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 134.6 | 40% | 74–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 154.2 | 49% | 104–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 144.3 | 53% | 53–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 132.6 | 50% | 70–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.8 | 139.5 | 90% | 59–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 149.0 | 35% | 75–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 149.9 | 71% | 94–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 156.3 | 57% | 77–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.8 | 162.2 | 19% | 95–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 151.8 | 89% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 130.2 | 25% | 82–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 140.0 | 87% | 55–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 147.6 | 36% | 67–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 145.2 | 46% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.5 | 140.6 | 21% | 65–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 142.3 | 51% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 130.2 | 73% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 155.4 | 80% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.1 | 148.8 | 18% | 89–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 140.3 | 16% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 140.4 | 63% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 147.6 | 28% | 63–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 142.6 | 41% | 90–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 141.8 | 70% | 69–52 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 147.8 | 55% | 77–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 145.2 | 43% | 85–96 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 146.4 | 34% | 72–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 138.6 | 44% | 73–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.