Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–18 on winners spread MAE 10.3 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Florida State +18.4 140.7 88% 57–91 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +6.0 142.3 74% 78–88 ✓
VMI @ Loyola Maryland +4.8 141.8 69% 67–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -4.7 144.2 30% 78–76 ✓
Stanford @ Grand Canyon -7.2 147.0 21% 71–78 ✗
Wagner @ Georgetown +9.0 126.5 76% 41–66 ✓
Manhattan @ Virginia +8.2 131.8 77% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +17.4 137.8 90% 54–83 ✓
Boise State @ Boston College -6.9 144.6 24% 61–63 ✗
North Dakota State @ Samford +10.4 154.5 83% 98–103 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +3.2 142.4 56% 85–80 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Alabama +13.9 131.9 85% 64–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Iowa +22.6 165.0 91% 77–110 ✓
Long Beach State @ UTEP +4.3 134.0 66% 44–70 ✓
Iowa State @ Dayton -1.6 143.5 46% 89–84 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Belmont +5.9 144.0 77% 77–63 ✗
Kansas @ Duke +6.9 141.5 70% 75–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine +5.9 137.3 71% 72–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Montana State +7.5 141.7 74% 59–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Utah +26.8 139.7 91% 48–94 ✓
California Baptist @ SMU +7.2 153.0 75% 77–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Arizona +0.1 133.3 53% 72–68 ✗
Grambling @ Cal Poly +6.7 144.3 75% 79–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ UC Santa Barbara +10.6 149.4 80% 51–67 ✓
Southern Utah @ UCLA +16.1 138.3 86% 43–88 ✓
Notre Dame @ Rutgers -2.4 149.5 40% 84–85 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ San José State -9.1 132.3 21% 64–69 ✗
Auburn @ North Carolina -3.1 166.0 43% 85–72 ✓
Furman @ Seattle U -2.5 138.8 37% 61–56 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington State +7.6 148.7 79% 73–84 ✓
Louisville @ Indiana -0.7 142.5 49% 89–61 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +2.8 142.7 66% 69–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Detroit Mercy -13.3 141.2 14% 81–75 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +6.1 148.5 66% 69–92 ✓
SE Louisiana @ North Dakota -2.6 136.9 39% 76–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Charleston +6.3 138.6 73% 64–79 ✓
UTSA @ Merrimack -0.1 131.4 47% 76–74 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Baylor +25.2 156.1 91% 60–91 ✓
Bryant @ Chattanooga +3.2 149.2 66% 76–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +11.9 143.2 83% 54–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Youngstown State +6.4 139.3 70% 73–62 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Charlotte +5.6 143.9 69% 75–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ Tennessee Tech +1.0 138.8 51% 75–90 ✓
Gonzaga @ West Virginia -10.7 145.9 17% 78–86 ✗
Colorado @ Iowa State +2.2 141.6 59% 71–99 ✓
Tulsa @ Georgia State +1.2 144.0 55% 71–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Bethune-Cookman -4.4 139.1 30% 79–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee +24.0 135.0 91% 35–78 ✓
NJIT @ Morehead State +4.7 130.0 70% 78–69 ✗
West Georgia @ North Dakota State +3.9 138.1 67% 61–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ App State -5.4 144.3 26% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Valparaiso +8.9 138.3 80% 82–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ Air Force +3.5 132.6 53% 63–61 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon +2.5 136.0 64% 68–78 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +3.9 146.2 62% 62–54 ✗
Canisius @ Robert Morris +16.5 138.1 90% 64–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Maryland +20.7 146.3 90% 67–91 ✓
Memphis @ Auburn +2.4 156.5 58% 76–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Austin Peay +3.9 142.1 69% 68–58 ✗
Providence @ Oklahoma +1.8 130.8 58% 77–79 ✓
Ball State @ Richmond +1.9 132.1 57% 60–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Virginia Tech -4.1 137.1 33% 70–60 ✓
Tulane @ Belmont +1.3 148.5 60% 66–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Western Illinois -4.4 137.7 30% 86–75 ✓
Creighton @ Texas A&M +3.3 138.8 67% 73–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +25.2 149.0 91% 61–81 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +15.2 154.6 87% 79–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.